MRK
Merck & Co.NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MRK has a composite score of 28.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.8 and is driven by macro factors such as labor and rates. The scores indicate moderate risk with a total risk score of 27.3 and a valuation score of 47.3, which is categorized as full. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.15
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.93 → $2.10 (+8.8% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 66% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase EPS guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/30: “Narrows and Raises Expected Non-GAAP EPS Range To Be Between $5.04 and $5.16.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from $5.00-$5.15 to $5.04-$5.16 for 2026. Despite the increase, the status is behind, indicating limited progress in achieving the desired EPS growth.
- 2.Raise revenue guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/30: “Now Expects Sales To Be Between $65.8 Billion and $67.0 Billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was raised from $65.5-$67.0 billion to $65.8-$67.0 billion for 2026. Despite the increase, the status is behind, indicating limited progress in achieving the desired revenue growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −11%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.26 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 54/100, drawdown 77/100, beta 74/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase the EPS guidance for the fiscal year.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from $5.00-$5.15 to $5.04-$5.16 for 2026. Despite the increase, the status is behind, indicating limited progress in achieving the desired EPS growth.
14%CEO/CFO:“Narrows and Raises Expected Non-GAAP EPS Range To Be Between $5.04 and $5.16.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Narrows and Raises Expected Non-GAAP EPS Range To Be Between $5.04 and $5.16.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expects Non-GAAP EPS To Be Between $5.00 and $5.15.”
- #2
Raise revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to raise the revenue guidance for the fiscal year.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was raised from $65.5-$67.0 billion to $65.8-$67.0 billion for 2026. Despite the increase, the status is behind, indicating limited progress in achieving the desired revenue growth.
14%CEO/CFO:“Now Expects Sales To Be Between $65.8 Billion and $67.0 Billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Now Expects Sales To Be Between $65.8 Billion and $67.0 Billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Anticipates Worldwide Sales To Be Between $65.5 Billion and $67.0 Billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MRK Merck & Co. | +28 | full | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-30)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Incorporated by reference is a press release issued by Merck & Co., Inc. on April 30, 2026, regarding earnings for the first quarter of 2026, attached as Exhibit 99.1. Also incorporated by reference is certain supplemental information not included in the press release, attached as Exhibit 99.2. This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Se…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Incorporated by reference is a press release issued by Merck & Co., Inc. on February 3, 2026, regarding earnings for the fourth quarter and year end of 2025, attached as Exhibit 99.1. Also incorporated by reference is certain supplemental information not included in the press release, attached as Exhibit 99.2. This information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabil…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.