Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The Marzetti Company (MZTI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$108.50-3.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.23 → 7.16 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MZTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital allocation supporting growth and stability | A supporting condition in The Marzetti Company's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain quarterly dividends and complete strategic acquisitions. | Intact | Dividend cuts or failure to complete planned acquisitions | Dividend $1.00 maintained; acquisitions advancing Q4 2026 earnings call highlights record year with acquisitions; May 2026 dividend declared at $1.00. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MZTI is a consumer staples company with a moderate-risk, execution-dependent long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, and recent momentum improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality, management, and recent performance are rated neutral.
The valuation carries a durable premium of 1.28 times peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.08. The evidence labels that premium justified and overall fragility low, but does not provide enough detail to describe exactly what earnings assumptions the market has priced in.
Near term, operational savings and the Bachan’s acquisition are supporting results: gross margin improved, and the acquisition added sales in fiscal 2026. Management has also continued its stated capital-allocation approach, while a recent earnings beat is a positive signal; however, the company has missed in recent quarters and earnings surprises have been trending down.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued integration and growth from acquisitions, further cost savings, and steady execution. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable, while strong earnings and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For a 1-3 year view, MZTI’s improving momentum and delivery on acquisitions and margins support an intact thesis, but recent earnings consistency and the president transition remain points to watch. The premium versus peers leaves execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operational efficiency with cost savings |
| The company aims to improve efficiency and complete acquisitions. |
| Intact |
| Gross profit growth falls below $1 million per quarter |
Gross profit: $110.774M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit increases by at least $1 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026110,774,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 4% next fiscal year | Sales should grow about 4% next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.40 → $7.16 · observed estimates
$2.09B → $2.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.40 | $2,092,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.40 | $2,091,965,769 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.28 | $2,049,212,959 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.28 | $2,049,212,959 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.28 | $2,049,212,959 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.23 | $2,049,214,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.26 | $2,050,654,329 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.23 | $2,050,669,700 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.16 | $2,054,273,520 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.16 | $2,054,273,520 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.