The Marzetti Company (MZTI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.39-0.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MZTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MZTI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-19
Other Events On August 19, 2026, The Marzetti Company issued a press release announcing its first quarter fiscal 2027 dividend and also announcing that its annual meeting will be held virtually on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. with a record date of Monday, September 14, 2026 for notice and voting at the meeting. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth will show if new products and acquisitions boost demand. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifRetail net sales grow year over year by more than 1% in Q4.
Worry ifRetail net sales decline year over year or grow less than 1% in Q4.
Why it matters: Growth in foodservice sales is key for steady revenue as retail sales drop.
Supportive ifFoodservice sales grow year over year in Q4, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifFoodservice sales fell year over year in Q4. This shows possible problems ahead.
Why it matters: Key decisions at the annual meeting can affect future plans and operations.
Watch forThey announce good plans or solutions during the meeting.
Also watch forNo big changes or negative news come from the meeting.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost management. This means the company is running efficiently.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin goes above 24% in Q3. This shows effective cost savings.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin drops below 23% in Q3. This suggests rising costs or inefficiencies.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,278 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth or better profit numbers.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more drops in revenue or profit.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs without sales growth can hurt profits. Keeping track helps with cost control.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase by more than 10% while sales grow less than 2%.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses increase less than 5% while sales grow by more than 2%.
Why it matters: A stable or higher dividend shows financial health. It can also boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe stock price goes up after the $1.00 dividend announcement on September 30, 2026.
Worry ifStock price falls after the dividend announcement. This shows negative feelings from investors.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth from Bachan's shows good integration. This would increase overall revenue.
Supportive ifBachan's sales bring in at least $10 million in Q3 revenue. This means integration is working.
Worry ifBachan's sales bring in less than $5 million in Q3 revenue. This suggests integration problems.
Why it matters: New products could help boost retail sales after a decline. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifRetail sales increase year over year by more than 2% in Q4.
Worry ifRetail sales decline year over year or stay flat in Q4.
Why it matters: Foodservice sales growth is important. It helps make up for losses in other areas.
Supportive ifFoodservice segment sales increase year over year by more than 1.5%.
Worry ifFoodservice segment sales decline year over year or remain flat.
Why it matters: High SG&A costs are impacting net income. Stabilizing or reducing them is crucial for profit.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSG&A expenses continue to rise or remain above $61 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The success of the acquisition is important for growth. Problems with integration could hurt performance.
Supportive ifBachan's made over $10 million in net sales in the first quarter after the buy.
Worry ifBachan's does not meet sales goals. It also has problems with integration.
Why it matters: A further drop in revenue would show ongoing struggles despite recent acquisitions.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines further from $453.37M reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows compared to $453.37M.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well recent strategies and acquisitions are working.
Watch forQ4 earnings per share exceeds $1.40.
Also watch forQ4 earnings per share falls below $1.20.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean lower costs. This can lead to higher profits.
Supportive ifGross margin increases by more than 50 basis points in Q4.
Worry ifGross margin decreases or stays flat in Q4.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments show how management views cash flow. Steady dividends show stability.
Watch forAnnouncement of a cash dividend increase beyond $1.00 per share.
Also watch forA cash dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Why it matters: Growth from Bachan's will show if the acquisition is successful and adds value.
Supportive ifBachan's retail sales grew over 8.7% compared to last year.
Worry ifRetail segment sales growth attributed to Bachan's is below 8.7% year over year.
Why it matters: If Foodservice sales stabilize or grow, it shows recovery from recent drops.
Supportive ifFoodservice segment sales grow year over year or stabilize above a decline of 0.1%.
Worry ifFoodservice segment sales decline further year over year beyond the current -0.1%.