The Marzetti Company (MZTI)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$108.50-3.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MZTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MZTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 3, 2026, The Marzetti Company issued a press release announcing its results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Foodservice sales were nearly flat after removing the ended supply deal. A decline could show weaker demand from core customers.
Worry ifQ1 core Foodservice sales, excluding the Winland supply deal, fall year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 core Foodservice sales grow year over year, after excluding the Winland supply deal.
Why it matters: Bachan’s added $15.4 million in Q4 sales. Growth in sales and store reach can show whether the deal keeps adding to Retail.
Supportive ifQ1 results show Bachan’s sales up year over year and distribution points still rising from Q4’s 16.6% gain.
Worry ifQ1 results show Bachan’s sales down year over year or distribution points falling from Q4 levels.
Why it matters: Bachan’s lifted Q4 Retail sales, while Retail volume fell 1.7%. Growth without that lift would show broader brand strength.
Supportive ifQ1 Retail sales grow year over year excluding Bachan’s, with volume no longer down from the prior year.
Worry ifQ1 Retail sales excluding Bachan’s decline year over year, and Retail volume remains down.
Why it matters: Management sees moderate input cost inflation and plans to offset it with price increases and savings. Margin results will test that plan.
Watch forQ1 gross margin rises year over year from 24.5%. Management says cost savings and pricing offset inflation.
Also watch forQ1 gross margin falls year over year from 24.5%, while input costs rise and price increases do not offset them.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,261 loss on $10,000 · 42.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.