Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
N-able, Inc. (NABL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.92-2.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.43 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NABL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit grows beyond $101.9 million | Gross profit improved by $2.7M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $99 million next year | Gross profit: $106.202M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $101.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026106,202,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NABL is a growth-oriented software business with improving profitability, but it is not yet consistently profitable on the evidence provided. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and management execution is volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says NABL is cheap versus peers, while another shows a premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is negative, so the valuation picture does not show a clear cushion or a clear high-expectations setup.
Near term, revenue has grown and the adjusted EBITDA margin improved in 2026-Q2; management also reports progress on partner-led growth and AI products. However, ARR growth was 6.0% year over year, profitability delivery is rated mixed, and the history of recent misses makes guidance and execution important risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue and ARR growth continuing while margins remain near management’s stated range. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or steadier results from large technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NABL has evidence of business growth and improving margins, but the mixed signal, volatile management record, and high risk leave the thesis dependent on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose $2.4M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $10 million next year |
Operating income: $16.476M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202616,476,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $556 million in 2026 | A primary condition in N-able, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$556 million. | Improving | Revenue falls below $500 million in FY26 | Revenue: $138.223M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$556 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026138,223,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.48 → $0.43 · observed estimates
$0.60B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.48 | $602,682,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.48 | $602,716,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.43 | $574,070,433 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.43 | $574,098,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.43 | $574,098,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.43 | $574,098,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.43 | $574,098,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.43 | $574,098,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.43 | $580,461,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.43 | $580,461,161 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.43 | $574,098,661 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.