N-able, Inc. (NABL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.06+1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NABL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NABL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, N-able, Inc. (“N-able”) issued a press release regarding, and will hold a conference call announcing, its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of N-able's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to…
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows consistent growth and strong customer retention.
Supportive ifTotal ARR reported within the range of $581 to $586 million.
Worry ifTotal ARR reported below $581 million.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks shows management believes in the company's value. It can help stock price.
Supportive ifShare buyback activity will resume in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo news or continuation of share buyback activity in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong adoption would validate N-able's investment in AI and support growth.
Supportive ifManagement will report strong use of AI products in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement says adoption is slow or customer feedback is bad.
Why it matters: Gross profit growth indicates better pricing and cost control. This is vital for N-able's strategy.
Supportive ifGross profit increases to over $105M in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit stays below $105M in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$344 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $714 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,471 loss on $10,000 · 64.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New AI products may improve market position. This aligns with management's focus on AI.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new AI product launch in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new AI product launches announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows N-able is managing costs well. This is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than Q1 results.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and performance. Ann Johnson's exit raises worries.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new board member with strong credentials.
Less concerning ifNo new board member is named or more departures happen.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can raise earnings per share and show management's confidence.
Supportive ifShare buyback completed, leading to a noticeable increase in EPS.
Worry ifNo significant change in EPS or share price post-buyback announcement.
Why it matters: More use of AI features could help N-able compete better and increase revenue. AI is key in cybersecurity.
Supportive ifManagement reports big growth in AI product use or partnerships.
Worry ifManagement says AI product use is slow or has problems.
Why it matters: A drop in retention may show unhappy customers and hurt future revenue.
Worry ifRetention rates will be under 85% in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifRetention rates remain at or above 90%.
Why it matters: This shows weaker growth. It may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported at less than $134.5 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue exceeds $135.5 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show profit issues. It can affect future growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 29% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was 30% or higher for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Active repurchases show management's confidence. This can help support share price.
Supportive ifLook for news about share buybacks or the $50 million increase being finished.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcement in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New AI products can enhance competitive positioning and drive growth in a key market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new AI product or big updates to current AI products.
Worry ifNo new AI product announcements or updates in the next quarter.