Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NBTB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$52.97-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.57 → 4.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NBTB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.37 | The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.37 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.37 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share = $0.37. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NBTB is a regional bank with a measured growth thesis, supported by loan expansion, higher net interest income, and dividend growth. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent earnings history and a CEO transition leave some execution uncertainty.
Valuation is broadly aligned with expectations, and the model places NBTB at a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are somewhat ahead of the evidence; valuation fragility is low.
Near term, recent results are strong: net interest margin and net interest income improved from Q1 to Q3, and loans grew. Management is delivering on loan growth and dividend priorities, while progress on margin expansion is mixed; the recent earnings beat followed a July miss, and a guidance cut remains a risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued margin and income growth, loan growth without weaker credit quality, and management execution through the CEO transition. A guidance cut or rate cuts could weigh on the business, while continued strength from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, NBTB has a constructive but measured business setup, with improving results and loan growth offset by uncertainty around rates, guidance, and execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| NBT Bancorp grows net income strongly, from $36.7M to $51.1M in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $36.7 million in any quarter going forward |
Net income: $53.03M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $51.1 million net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202653,030,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income to reach at least $66.7 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $47.2M to $66.7M in the same period. | Intact | operating income falls below $47.2 million in any quarter going forward | Operating income: $69.116M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $66.7 million operating income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202669,116,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 6% annually | A primary condition in NBT Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 5.8% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 5% YoY over next 12 months | Revenue growth: 4.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5.8% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 20264.608705 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.50 → $4.56 · observed estimates
$0.80B → $0.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.50 | $797,699,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.53 | $801,019,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.53 | $801,936,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.54 | $800,426,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.56 | $801,509,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.57 | $801,676,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.57 | $803,609,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.56 | $802,959,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.56 | $804,825,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.56 | $804,825,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.56 | $804,825,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.56 | $804,991,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.56 | $804,991,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.56 | $804,991,667 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.