NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NBTB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$52.97-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBTB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NBTB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-21
Director — Kimberly A. Boynton: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to fill a newly created board seat, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Q3 costs rose faster than the prior quarter's revenue. Continued cost pressure could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifIn Q4, noninterest expense rises above $115.2 million. Revenue growth falls below Q3's 4.5% rate from the prior quarter.
Less concerning ifQ4 noninterest expense is at or below $115.2 million, while revenue grows from Q3.
Why it matters: NBT's margin rose to 3.78% in Q3. More growth would support its plan to lift net interest income.
Supportive ifQ4 FTE net interest margin is above 3.78%, and net interest income is above $142.1 million.
Worry ifQ4 FTE net interest margin falls below 3.73%, or net interest income falls below $137.0 million.
Why it matters: Loans grew through Q3 despite planned run-off in two portfolios. More core growth would support income.
Supportive ifAt period end, loans rise above $11.95 billion, the Q3 level. Exclude the other consumer and residential solar run-off portfolios.
Worry ifAt period end, loans fall below the Q3 level of $11.95 billion. Exclude those run-off portfolios.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets rose to 0.43% in Q3, from 0.33% at year-end 2025. A further rise would point to more credit strain.
Worry ifNonperforming assets as a share of total assets rise above 0.43% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets to total assets fall to 0.40% or lower, with net charge-offs at or below 0.14%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,217 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: NBT raised its quarterly dividend to $0.40 in Q3. Keeping or raising it would extend its stated dividend-growth record.
Supportive ifNBT declares a next quarterly dividend of at least $0.40 per share.
Worry ifNBT declares a next quarterly dividend below $0.40 per share, or cuts the dividend.