NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NBTB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.27+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBTB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NBTB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 27, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. That press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. A conference call will be held at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, to review the second quarter 2026 financial results. The audio webcast link, along with the corresponding presentation slides, will be available on the Event Cale…
Why it matters: A drop in NIM could hurt profits and show pressure on interest income.
Worry ifNIM is below 3.72%. This shows there is pressure on interest income.
Less concerning ifNIM remains at or above 3.72%, showing stable interest income.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans can mean credit quality problems. This affects overall profits.
Worry ifNonperforming loans ratio is below 0.53%. This shows better credit quality.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans ratio is above 0.53%. This shows worse credit quality.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows earnings are strong. It supports management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $55.2 million, which is a 4% increase from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $55.2 million. This may mean earnings are slowing down.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is important. It shows how well the company runs and makes money.
Supportive ifOperating income grows year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing deposits show strong customer trust and good banking plans. This helps NBT grow.
Supportive ifTotal deposits are over $14 billion.
Worry ifTotal deposits fall below $14 billion.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs above 0.15% each year mean credit quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs at or below 0.15% show credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows strong demand and good credit management. It helps income growth through interest revenue.
Supportive ifTotal loans are over $12 billion. This shows a successful loan growth plan.
Worry ifTotal loans remain below $11.55 billion, suggesting challenges in loan growth.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company values its shareholders. It wants to give them value.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled on June 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows that management values shareholders. It means they want to give back.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend announced at more than $0.40 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend is at or below $0.40 per share. This may show caution in spending.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans could mean worse asset quality and lower earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are over 0.53% of total loans. This shows asset quality problems.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are at or below 0.53%. This shows stable asset quality.
Why it matters: Growing margins show good management of interest income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 3.73%. This shows good growth strategies.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.70%. This suggests problems with managing interest income.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below its median could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This impacts overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also helps shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.37 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.37 per share. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means the company is making more money. This helps long-term goals.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $66.7 million in the Q2 2026 earnings.
Worry ifOperating income was below $47.2 million in the Q2 2026 earnings.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs could mean higher credit risk. This can lower investor confidence.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.17% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.15% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may hurt profits. Investors watch this closely.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.72% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays at or above 3.73% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate weakening demand and affect overall earnings. This is key for investors.
Worry ifTotal loans grow less than 2.4% from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans grow by 2.4% or more from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller dividend increase may show weaker capital use or earnings growth. Investors like steady returns.
Worry ifDividend increase is less than 8.1% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDividend increase is 8.1% or more in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,217 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.