NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 NCLH trades at 8.5× p/e, below its 34× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $14–$27. Note: our $28 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($14–$27). Not investment advice.
$14.00 – $27.00 (median $20.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $20.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $16.14 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $54.23 | 33.5 | 1.62 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $50.08 | 14.8 | 5.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $74.32 | 33.5 | 2.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $44.98 | 2.1 | 21.52 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $11.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $20.44 | 9.2 | 2.22 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $76.14 | 33.5 | 2.27 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $45.50 | 33.5 | 1.36 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $62.35 | 33.5 | 1.86 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $52.81 | 2.1 | 25.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $17.15 | 9.2 | 1.86 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $40.47 | 33.5 | 1.21 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $55.45 | 33.5 | 1.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $58.63 | 2.1 | 28.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $15.25 | 9.2 | 1.66 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
