Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.57-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCLH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NCLH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-29
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd. (“NCLC”), a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (“NCLH”), elected to irrevocably fix the Settlement Method to Cash Settlement for all exchanges of its (i) 1.125% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027 (the “1.125% Notes”), issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of November 19, 2021, by and among NCLC, as issuer, NCLH, as guarantor, and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor to U.S. Bank National Association)…
Why it matters: Lower occupancy rates show weaker demand. This could affect revenue.
Worry ifQ3 2026 occupancy rates were below 102.3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 occupancy rates were at or above 102.3%.
Why it matters: Getting these savings would help improve margins. It would also show good cost management.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve an extra $100 million in annual savings.
Worry ifNo mention of progress on cost savings or a reduction in expected savings.
Why it matters: These savings would show good cost control. This helps profits.
Supportive ifThe company says it saved $125 million each year from SG&A plans.
Worry ifSG&A savings below $125 million show poor cost control.
Why it matters: More bookings would show recovery from global issues. This would improve revenue outlook.
Supportive ifBookings in Europe show a significant upward trend compared to previous months.
Worry ifBookings in Europe continue to decline or remain stagnant.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $480 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,510 loss on $10,000 · 45.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Missing this target would show ongoing problems. It could also hurt investor trust.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was less than $874 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was more than $874 million.
Why it matters: A rise in bookings shows better demand and operations.
Supportive ifBookings in Europe are getting better. This comes after some political tensions.
Worry ifBookings in Europe continue to decline or remain stagnant.
Why it matters: Cutting debt is important. It helps improve financial health and lowers risk.
Supportive ifCompany reports a decrease in Net Leverage from 5.3x to below 5.0x.
Worry ifNet Leverage remains at or above 5.3x.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in Net Yield shows problems with demand and execution.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Net Yield on a Constant Currency basis declines more than -8.9%.
Less concerning ifNet Yield decline is less than -8.9%, indicating better demand.
Why it matters: The opening could boost demand for Caribbean trips. This is important for revenue.
Supportive ifThere is a big rise in bookings for Caribbean trips after the September 4 opening.
Worry ifBookings for Caribbean trips stay flat or drop even after the opening.
Why it matters: More savings show good cost management and a better profit outlook.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved over $100 million in SG&A costs.
Worry ifNo new news on SG&A savings shows cost management problems.
Why it matters: High debt may limit financial choices and affect growth plans.
Worry ifNet Leverage remains above 5.3x in future reports.
Less concerning ifNet Leverage drops below 5.3x, showing better management of the balance sheet.