Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.76-4.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCLH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NCLH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Terms and Conditions for Cruise Vessel Financing On October 27, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd. (“NCLC”), a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (“NCLH”), as guarantor, and its subsidiaries NCL NextGen Class III Ltd. and NCL NextGen Class IV Ltd., as borrowers, entered into separate credit facility agreements (collectively, the “Credit Facilities” and each, a “Credit Facility”) with, among others, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Ban…
Why it matters: Fuel prices can change earnings. The company says a 10% price move changes Q4 adjusted EPS by about $0.03.
Worry ifQ4 fuel price per metric ton, net of hedges, is above the $803 guide.
Less concerning ifQ4 fuel price per metric ton, net of hedges, is at or below $803.
Why it matters: Bookings remain below the company's best range. A stronger booking pace would support its yield growth plan.
Supportive ifA future update shows the next 12-month booked position in the company's optimal range.
Worry ifThe next 12-month booked position remains below the optimal range or falls further.
Why it matters: Net Leverage was 5.5x in Q3, with $14.8 billion of net debt. A lower reading would show progress on debt reduction.
Supportive ifA future quarterly report shows Net Leverage below 5.5x.
Worry ifA future quarterly report shows Net Leverage at or above 5.5x, or net debt above $14.8 billion.
Why it matters: Great Tides Waterpark opened in September. More demand for Caribbean trips would show the new guest offer is helping.
Supportive ifA future update ties stronger Caribbean bookings or pricing to Great Stirrup Cay.
Worry ifA future update says Great Stirrup Cay did not raise demand. Bookings stay below the optimal range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $467 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,357 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 yield fell 6.5%, and Q4 guidance calls for a similar drop. A smaller decline would show demand is improving.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 Net Yield falls less than 6.5% year over year on a constant-currency basis.
Worry ifQ4 2026 Net Yield falls 6.5% or more year over year on a constant-currency basis.
Why it matters: Yield fell 6.5% in Q3 2026. Reaching growth in 2027 would mark a clear change.
Supportive ifA 2027 report shows Net Yield growth of at least 1%, with faster growth in the second half.
Worry ifA 2027 report shows flat or falling Net Yield, or growth below 1%.