Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nine Energy Service Inc (NINE)
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.10-4.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.55 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NINE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations must stabilize | A supporting condition in Nine Energy Service Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=0. | Under Pressure | cash flow from operations remains negative for the current fiscal year | Cash from operations: $-2.296M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jun 30, 2026-2,296,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NINE is a high-risk, loss-making energy services business with a possible recovery path, rather than an established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: revenue has grown and losses have narrowed, but financial performance remains weak and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation evidence says NINE is cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, so expectations appear cautious. The priced-in assessment calls the setup justified, with low fragility because the concern is a turbulent sector regime rather than a combined expensive, weak, and turbulent setup. Valuation has risen recently, though the evidence does not quantify what business improvement the market assumes.
Near term, continued revenue growth and narrower operating and net losses would support management’s stated priorities, but cash flow from operations remains negative and progress on stabilizing it is limited. The latest evidence shows a smaller net loss and an earnings beat, yet recent performance remains well below the industry cohort, and the next results carry elevated miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the favorable case depends partly on energy-sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. If they weaken, or if the jobs trend fuels recession concerns, the sector tailwind could fade and cyclical businesses such as NINE could face more pressure. The multi-year thesis also depends on turning revenue growth and loss reduction into steadier operating cash flow and sustained profitability.
For the 1 to 3 year view, NINE shows measurable progress in reducing losses, but remains a high-risk, weak-performing business with uncertain execution and meaningful exposure to the energy cycle. The thesis remains on watch until profitability and cash flow show firmer progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 6 quarters. Cash flow from operations was negative $5.3M in 2025-Q1 and improved slightly to negative $4.7M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows limited progress in stabilizing cash flow but remains a focus.
Operating income must turn positive | A supporting condition in Nine Energy Service Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=0. | Broken | operating income remains negative for the current fiscal year | Operating income: $-3.745M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-3,745,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net losses improved from $19.2M in 2025-Q4 to $6.1M in 2026-Q2, showing a significant reduction in losses. The trajectory indicates delivering progress toward improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Revenue growth must continue to improve | A primary condition in Nine Energy Service Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=550M. | Intact | falls below $550M in revenue for the current fiscal year | Revenue: $183.409M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=550M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026183,409,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $132.2M in 2025-Q4 to $183.4M in 2026-Q2, while operating income improved from a loss of $5.5M to a smaller loss of $3.7M. The trajectory shows progress in revenue growth and narrowing operating losses, indicating partial delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.55 → $0.55 · observed estimates
$0.61B → $0.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.55 | $606,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.