NL Industries, Inc. (NL)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.79-2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “NLI Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results” issued on August 5, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial after negative cash from operations in Q1 2026. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: An increase in TiO2 prices would signal better pricing power and improved margins for NL.
Supportive ifKronos reports that average TiO2 selling prices rose by at least 4% from last year.
Worry ifKronos reports that average TiO2 selling prices fell compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger efficiency. It is important for financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow turns positive for the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is still negative or worse than last quarter.
Why it matters: It is important to meet financial duties. This helps keep stability after the merger.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan to manage and lower financial duties.
Less concerning ifNo plan is presented, or obligations increase beyond current levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $461 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,322 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help NL Industries improve its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Managing financial tasks is key for NL's stability. It impacts future spending.
Worry ifManagement reports that financial tasks or debts are lower now.
Less concerning ifFinancial duties increase or stay the same, showing poor debt management.
Why it matters: Money owed is important for NL's stability after the merger. It affects cash flow and trust from investors.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan to handle money owed and debts from the merger.
Less concerning ifThere are no updates. The money owed after the merger is unclear.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is healthier. It also shows they are more efficient.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow improves by at least 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow declines or remains flat compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Kronos' sales growth shows demand for TiO2 products. It impacts NL's earnings.
Supportive ifKronos' Q3 net sales grow year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifKronos' Q3 net sales decline year over year or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows the company is doing well. It shows management cares about returns.
Supportive ifNL confirms a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNL cuts or suspends the quarterly dividend for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: TiO2 prices affect Kronos' profits and NL's earnings. Price changes show market demand.
Watch forAverage TiO2 selling prices increase by more than 5% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forAverage TiO2 selling prices decrease or stay flat in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: How NL handles its debts affects its cash flow and overall stability.
Watch forNL has a clear plan and is making progress on its financial obligations.
Also watch forNL has trouble managing its money duties.