NL Industries, Inc. (NL)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.10-3.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 7 industry peers
NL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “NLI Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results” issued on August 5, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report is not deemed “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Kronos raised average TiO2 prices 4% in the first half of 2026. More gains could help offset costs and currency swings.
Supportive ifKronos reports average TiO2 prices rose again in Q3 from the Q2 level.
Worry ifKronos reports average TiO2 prices fell in Q3 from the Q2 level.
Why it matters: NL declared a $0.10 quarterly dividend. The payment dates make the declared payout easy to check.
Watch forNL pays $0.10 per share on Dec. 15 to shareholders of record on Nov. 19.
Also watch forNL announces a cut, cancellation, or delay to the $0.10 dividend or its stated payment date.
Why it matters: Kronos earned $37.6 million in Q2, up from $7.4 million a year earlier. A drop would test whether lower costs and price gains can last.
Watch forQ3 Kronos operating income tops $37.6 million, with sales or costs named as the driver.
Also watch forQ3 Kronos operating income falls below $37.6 million. Lower prices or higher costs are named as causes.
Why it matters: CompX sales and segment profit rose in Q2. Continued growth would show that gains are reaching both sales and profit.
Supportive ifQ3 CompX sales exceed $43.6 million and segment profit exceeds $8.9 million.
Worry ifQ3 CompX sales fall below $43.6 million or segment profit falls below $8.9 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $433 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,322 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Shareholders approved the move to Delaware and the NLI Holdings name. A delay or failure would leave that change incomplete.
Watch forA company filing or release confirms the merger took effect and NL became NLI Holdings.
Also watch forA company filing or release says the merger was delayed, canceled, or did not take effect.