Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NL Industries, Inc. (NL)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.10-3.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.87 → 0.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage financial obligations assumed after reincorporation | If NL manages its financial obligations well, it could recover. | Intact | No progress or worsening in managing financial obligations over next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NL is a high-risk, loss-making business with recent financial performance that remains strong relative to its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and the risk label recently moved higher.
NL trades at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes the valuation as expensive with an unjustified premium. The expectations gap is meaningful, so the market appears to be pricing in durable strength despite weak execution quality and repeated earnings misses.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback. Management has made mixed progress: Kronos operating income improved in Q2 with lower production costs, and CompX sales and segment profit also improved, while the dividend’s sustainability is not established by the available evidence.
The near-term thesis hinges on whether NL avoids another miss and maintains guidance. Over the multi-year view, progress in Kronos efficiency and CompX growth matters, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by recent relative performance and signs of operational progress, but the loss-making profile, fragile earnings quality, elevated miss risk, and expensive valuation make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| NL Industries is working to improve its cash flow, which was negative $3.54 million in Q1 2026. |
| Improving |
| Operating cash flow remains negative over the next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $7.424M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow improves to positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20267,424,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near analyst expectations | A supporting condition in NL Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% revenue growth YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% revenue growth YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20268.046376 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.87 → $0.87 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.87 | $169,608,640 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.