NextNav, Inc. (NN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.76-11.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
NN — private placement
Dated 2026-05-27
Other Events. On May 27, 2026, NextNav Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has elected to redeem all of its outstanding public warrants (the “Public Warrants”) to purchase shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), pursuant to the terms of the Amended and Restated Warrant Agreement, dated as of October 28, 2021 (the “Warrant Agreement”), by and among Spartacus Acquisition Corporation, the Company, and Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company,…
Why it matters: FCC action can shape the rules for NextNav’s 3D location service. A delay or rejection would weaken this path.
Watch forThe FCC issues a notice to seek comments on NextNav’s petition. Or, it adopts rules that allow the proposed service.
Also watch forThe FCC rejects the petition, delays action, or adopts rules that block the proposed service.
Why it matters: Q1 cash and short-term investments totaled $143 million. Operating cash use was $10 million that quarter, while long-term debt was $267 million.
Worry ifCash and short-term investments fall below $133 million. Or, quarterly cash used in operations rises above $10 million.
Less concerning ifCash and short-term investments stay at or above $143 million. Quarterly cash used in operations is below $10 million.
Why it matters: Management says interest is growing, but Q1 revenue was only $995,000. A paid launch would show that interest is turning into sales.
Supportive ifNextNav names a customer and reports a paid 3D PNT launch, contract, or revenue tied to that service.
Worry ifThe Nov. 10 report names no customer or paid launch, and revenue is at or below $995,000.
Why it matters: The notes had about $186.5 million in principal. The final amount converted or redeemed will show how much debt remains after this step.
Watch forA company filing or report confirms the notes were canceled. It states the remaining principal and debt balance.
Also watch forA company filing shows the redemption did not close, or a large amount of the notes remains unpaid.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$347 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $873 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,287 loss on $10,000 · 62.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q1 revenue was $995,000, while the operating loss was $19.3 million. More revenue with a smaller loss would show progress toward scale.
Watch forIn the Nov. 10 report, quarterly revenue is above $1.15 million and the operating loss is below $19 million.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue is at or below $995,000, or the operating loss is at least $20 million.