Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NextNav, Inc. (NN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.03-8.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow improves to at least -$10M next quarter | NextNav aims to grow revenue above $995,000 next quarter. | Broken | Operating cash flow stays below -$16M next quarter | Cash from operations: $-17.98M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$10,041,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-17,980,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth company, not an established compounder. Its long-term thesis depends on turning 3D PNT solutions into a larger business, while recent financial performance remains weak and the thesis is in a watch state.
The valuation is described as far above peers, and the model points to a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear ahead of what the evidence supports. The valuation score rose recently, but confidence in the valuation model is low; the priced-in label is justified and the fragility tier is low.
Near term, revenue grew modestly between the first and second quarters of 2026, while operating losses remained around $19 million to $20 million. Management has advanced regulatory engagement and commercialization and simplified the capital structure, but these actions have not yet shown meaningful progress in profitability or scale. Recent earnings have been erratic, with misses across recent quarters despite one reported beat.
Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether commercialization can grow revenue enough to improve the loss-making business. Near term, lower interest rates or steadier results and guidance from large technology companies could support the sector backdrop, while materially slower GDP growth could weigh more heavily on growth-sensitive technology names.
NN remains an elevated-risk, speculative growth thesis with early revenue progress but no clear evidence yet of profitable scale. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on commercialization gains becoming visible in financial results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating cash flow was negative $10.0M in 2026-Q1 and worsened to negative $17.98M in 2026-Q2. Despite management focus on cash flow and expense management, cash burn increased, indicating limited progress on this priority.
5G timing accuracy validated at 20 nanoseconds | New 5G timing tests prove its product works well. | Intact | Product tests fail to maintain 20-nanosecond accuracy | 20ns accuracy validated vs 20ns target NextNav validated 20-nanosecond timing accuracy in 5G tests on May 19, 2026, reinforcing the competitive moat driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
FCC review leads to $200M+ warrant capital | The company has potential from FCC capital worth $200M+. | Improving | FCC review fails to deliver $200M+ capital | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $995,000 next quarter | NextNav aims to grow revenue above $995,000 next quarter. | Broken | Revenue falls below $945,000 next quarter | Revenue: $1.15M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $995,000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 20261,150,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $0.945M in 2025-Q4 to $1.15M in 2026-Q2, but operating losses remained substantial, around $16M to $20M. Management emphasizes improving financial performance, but operating losses have not materially declined, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Sep 14, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.67 → $-0.49 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.73 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.67 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.53 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.57 | $3,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.49 | $4,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.49 | $4,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.