National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$147.72+2.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers
NPK — President transition
Dated 2026-03-04
Vice President of Engineering — Jeff Morgan: Jeff Morgan is retiring after 16 years with the company, including 10 years as Vice President of Engineering.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing. It can affect investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful launches can boost sales and improve the segment's performance.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new Safety segment products that gain traction in the market.
Worry ifNew Safety products do not create strong sales or market interest.
Why it matters: Strong sales in the Defense segment confirm growth momentum and backlog strength.
Supportive ifDefense segment sales exceed $80 million in Q2 2026, showing continued growth.
Worry ifDefense sales drop below $70 million in Q2 2026. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help National Presto's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in the Defense segment helps the company do well. It also supports management's goals.
Supportive ifDefense segment sales grow more than 25% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDefense segment sales growth falls below 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The launch of new products is critical for growth in the Safety segment.
Supportive ifSales from new Safety segment products go over $5 million in the first quarter.
Worry ifSales from new products fall below $2 million in the same timeframe.
Why it matters: If this segment gets better, it shows more demand from consumers. It also means stable operations.
Supportive ifHousewares/Small Appliance segment sales increase more than 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHousewares/Small Appliance segment sales decline more than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New products can help the Safety segment grow. This can increase the company's revenue.
Supportive ifSales from the new Rely FX fire extinguishers exceed $1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales from the new Rely FX fire extinguishers remain below $500,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Building the new facility shows a commitment to growing Defense capabilities. This investment is key for future growth.
Supportive ifConstruction will start as planned in mid-June 2026.
Worry ifConstruction is delayed beyond the planned start date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,332 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.