National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$140.63-6.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name recently missed its own guidance and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NPK — President transition
Dated 2026-03-04
Vice President of Engineering — Jeff Morgan: Jeff Morgan is retiring after 16 years with the company, including 10 years as Vice President of Engineering.
Why it matters: Housewares sales fell in both Q1 and Q2. Tariff-driven price rises hurt demand, while a new warehouse disrupted Q1 shipments.
Supportive ifHousewares sales rise year over year in a quarter after Q2 2026.
Worry ifHousewares sales fall at least 6% year over year for another quarter.
Why it matters: The full line launched in May, but Safety sales remain small and the segment reported a loss. Sales growth would show the launch is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later company report shows Safety sales are up year over year. The segment reports a smaller loss or a profit.
Worry ifA later company report says Safety sales remain nominal. The segment still reports a loss.
Why it matters: Defense sales rose 27.2% in Q2, helped by more shipments from backlog. A sharp slowdown would weaken that growth signal.
Worry ifQuarterly Defense sales grow less than 10% year over year, or decline, after the Q2 increase.
Less concerning ifQuarterly Defense sales grow at least 20% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,754 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.