Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$7.21 → $7.21 · observed estimates
National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$149.60-1.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.21 → 7.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NPK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total consolidated revenue growth | A primary condition in National Presto Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | total revenue growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 21.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202621.707943 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$7.21 → $7.21 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NPK is a diversified industrial business with a growth driver in defense and a challenged housewares segment. Its long-term thesis is intact, and its recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence in the overall evidence is medium.
Valuation is stretched, at a 15% premium to peers, while the model shows a modest expectations gap with valuation and fundamentals broadly aligned. Fragility is low, so the snapshot does not indicate concentrated fragility despite the stretched valuation.
Near-term results face elevated risk: NPK recently missed its own guidance, and the evidence flags a meaningful chance of another earnings miss. Over the multi-year view, defense sales growth and new contract awards support execution, while housewares sales remain weak and product launches in safety have yet to make a meaningful commercial contribution.
The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance or if industrial bellwethers begin missing results or guiding lower. Continued strength from those peers could support the sector backdrop, while NPK’s longer-term execution also hinges on defense growth and progress addressing housewares demand and operating issues.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on defense growth continuing to offset housewares weakness, with near-term guidance and sector signals as key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In response to questions about sales and earnings for the quarter, Maryjo Cohen, President, stated, “Defense segment sales for the quarter were up $27.1 million or 27.2% from those reported in the comparable 2025 quarter, reflecting increased shipments from backlog.” “In response to questions about sales and earnings for the quarter, Maryjo Cohen, President, stated, “Defense segment sales for the quarter were up $29 million or 31.3% from those reported in the comparable 2025 quarter, reflecting increased shipments from backlog.”
Defense segment sales growth | National Presto grows defense sales strongly, up 23% in Q1. | Improving | defense segment sales growth falls below 15% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In response to questions about sales and earnings for the quarter, Maryjo Cohen, President, stated, “Defense segment sales for the quarter were up $27.1 million or 27.2% from those reported in the comparable 2025 quarter, reflecting increased shipments from backlog.” “In response to questions about sales and earnings for the quarter, Maryjo Cohen, President, stated, “Defense segment sales for the quarter were up $29 million or 31.3% from those reported in the comparable 2025 quarter, reflecting increased shipments from backlog.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
EPS stability and growth | A primary condition in National Presto Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.93 per share. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.85 per share next quarter | Diluted EPS: $2.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.93 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 14, 20262.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Housewares/Small Appliance segment operational recovery | Operational issues in housewares are being addressed with new sourcing strategies. | Intact | housewares segment sales decline exceeds 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In contrast to the prior year’s loss, Housewares/Small Appliance segment’s operating earnings were $2.2 million.” “In contrast to the prior year’s loss, Housewares/Small Appliance segment’s operating earnings were $8.1 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.55B → $0.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.21 | $551,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.