Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NRC HEALTH (NRC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.07+12.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments | A supporting condition in NRC HEALTH's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.16. | Intact | Dividends fall below $0.16 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.16. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NRC is a smaller-cap Healthcare business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality, but high risk makes the multi-year view less certain. The thesis is intact, though confidence has fallen to low and the evidence for recurring management priorities is limited.
NRC is expensive versus peers, with a 1.45 peer premium and a durable premium reflected in its valuation. The expectations gap is 0.26, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth or performance the market assumes; the valuation measure also fell recently.
Near-term results show revenue up 11% year over year, TRCV up 9%, higher operating income, and sequential margin expansion. The large customer went live on schedule, and multi-year renewals were reported, but repeated execution is not established; the recent earnings event was in line, and CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on converting contracts into recurring revenue and sustaining profitability progress. A weakening jobs trend could increase recession concerns for cyclical names, while continued earnings strength from Healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NRC has a strong operating picture but an expensive valuation, high risk, and low confidence in the evidence. The long-term thesis remains intact, with its durability hinging on continued execution and the Healthcare backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Strong leadership can help improve profitability. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income remains negative next quarter |
Operating income: $8.908M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20268,908,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth | A primary condition in NRC HEALTH's published investment case. The stated target is >= $36 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $36 million next quarter | Revenue: $38.399M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $36 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202638,399,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.11 → $1.11 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.11 | $127,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.