Nexpoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.79+0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NREF
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 NREF trades at 15× p/e — 1.5× the 9.7× p/e peer median, and above its own 8× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $9.30 fair value is medium-confidence here. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $18 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $2.88 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $5.79 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $2.44 | 8.1 | 0.30 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $12.51 |
| 9.7 |
| 1.29 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $5.23 | 1.8 | 2.96 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $15.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $9.10 | 7.5 | 1.21 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $11.55 | 9.7 | 1.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $10.28 | 9.7 | 1.06 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $7.95 | 1.8 | 4.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $16.80 | 7.5 | 2.23 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $9.02 | 9.7 | 0.93 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $10.52 | 1.8 | 5.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $22.22 | 7.5 | 2.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |