Nexpoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$13.59-7.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NREF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers
NREF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “ Exchange Ac t”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. On August 6, 2026, NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a pres…
Why it matters: The $0.50 dividend needs $0.50 per share in cash to cover it. Q2 cash was $0.58 per share, but Q3 guidance is $0.55.
Worry ifQ3 cash available for distribution is less than $0.50 per diluted common share.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash available for distribution is $0.55 or more per diluted common share. This meets the midpoint of guidance.
Why it matters: Q2 net income for common holders fell to $5.4 million from $10.0 million in Q1. Q3 results will test whether earnings stay positive.
Worry ifQ3 earnings for distribution are below $0.43 per diluted common share.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings for distribution are $0.43 or more per diluted common share.
Why it matters: Higher loan-to-value means less property value stands behind each loan. NREF reported a 63.4% average in Q2, up from 59.9% in Q1.
Worry ifThe next reported average senior loan LTV is above 63.4%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported weighted-average senior loan LTV is 63.4% or lower.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,521 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.