Nuvation Bio, Inc. (NUVB)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.19-11.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NUVB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 51.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 127.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NUVB — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-04
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On November 4, 2026, Nuvation Bio Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information contained in this Form 8-K, including in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or incorporated by reference in any filing und…
Why it matters: Nuvation reported $661.0 million in cash and a $62.8 million Q2 loss. Cash and loss figures show how fast it is using funds.
Worry ifThe Nov. 4 report shows cash below $598 million, or a quarterly net loss above $62.8 million.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 4 report shows cash at or above $598 million and a quarterly net loss at or below $62.8 million.
Why it matters: About 85% of Q2 new starts were TKI-naïve, and that group grew 30% from Q1. More growth would show wider use in this group.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 4 report says TKI-naïve new starts rose from about 136 in Q2 to above 136 in Q3.
Worry ifThe Nov. 4 report says TKI-naïve new starts were 136 or fewer in Q3.
Why it matters: The FDA set Jan. 4, 2027, as its target date for the label update. A broader label could reflect the added trial data.
Supportive ifBy Jan. 4, 2027, the FDA approves the IBTROZI label update with the added TRUST-I and TRUST-II data.
Worry ifThe FDA rejects the update, asks for more data, or misses the Jan. 4, 2027 target date.
Why it matters: Nuvation plans a DDC update by year-end 2026. A named candidate or study would mark progress beyond early research.
Supportive ifBy Dec. 31, 2026, Nuvation names a DDC candidate and shares a new preclinical or clinical milestone.
Worry ifNuvation gives no DDC update by Dec. 31, 2026, or says the update has been delayed.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $603 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,755 loss on $10,000 · 57.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Nuvation started two studies to test safusidenib in more types of IDH1-mutant glioma. Trial progress will show whether the wider plan is moving ahead.
Supportive ifNuvation reports that both G307 and G209 are enrolling patients and remain active.
Worry ifNuvation reports that either G307 or G209 has paused, closed, or missed a stated trial milestone.
Why it matters: Q2 product revenue was $23.2 million, up 25% from Q1. Another increase would show that use is still growing.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 4 report, IBTROZI product revenue is above $23.2 million for Q3.
Worry ifIn the Nov. 4 report, IBTROZI product revenue is $23.2 million or lower for Q3.