Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nuvation Bio, Inc. (NUVB)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.19-11.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NUVB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage new debt from $250 million offering without hurting growth | A supporting condition in Nuvation Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Debt managed without harming growth or cash flow. | Intact | Debt causes cash flow problems or growth stalls | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth company in a healthcare sector with a supportive backdrop, rather than an established, consistently profitable business. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the upper half of its industry, but confidence is medium and risk remains elevated.
NUVB is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain. The company is loss-making, which limits what valuation alone can say about its prospects.
Near term, IBTROZI revenue and adoption are growing: product revenue rose from $18.5 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $23.2 million in the second, with growth among TKI-naïve patients. Safusidenib development is advancing through expanded studies and Japan rights, while the drug-drug conjugate platform has yet to show substantive milestones. Results were in line in August, but losses and elevated sector risk remain; a guidance cut or weaker jobs data could weigh on the business outlook.
The multi-year case depends in part on continued IBTROZI adoption and progress in safusidenib studies. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as VRTX, REGN, and MRNA would support the sector backdrop. The jobs trend is another swing factor, as weakening employment could increase recession concerns for healthcare names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NUVB’s thesis rests on converting early product growth and clinical investment into durable progress, while managing the risks tied to losses and uncertain execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It made $5.4 million net income in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below zero in 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $-41.899M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.397 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026-41,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $83.23 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Nuvation Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=83.23 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $83 million in FY26 | Revenue: $44.951M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=83.23 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202644,951,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain strategic partnership with Eisai for drug development | The company has a deal with Eisai to develop a cancer drug. | Intact | Partnership with Eisai ends or fails | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.21 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.26 | $287,948,691 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.26 | $287,948,691 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.26 | $287,948,691 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.06 | $289,918,500 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.24 | $288,947,830 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.05 | $281,702,210 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.24 | $288,387,435 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.19 | $287,174,491 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.19 | $287,174,491 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.19 | $282,426,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.19 | $278,851,616 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.19 | $278,034,950 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.18 | $283,921,720 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.19 | $281,667,413 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.19 | $282,675,105 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.19 | $282,675,105 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.21 | $274,793,962 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.