NW Natural (NWN)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.19-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NWN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On September 3, 2026, Northwest Natural Gas Company (NW Natural), a wholly owned subsidiary of Northwest Natural Holding Company, issued and sold (i) $60,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its First Mortgage Bonds, 5.62% Series due 2036 (the 5.62% Bonds), and (ii) $60,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its First Mortgage Bonds, 6.26% Series due 2056 (the 6.26% Bonds), to ce…
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can indicate growth strategies and financial health. Positive news may boost stock value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new M&A deals or partnerships that enhance growth prospects.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or bad news about the recent agreements.
Why it matters: Utilities are in a maturing phase. If revenue growth speeds up, it could boost NW Natural's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 5% for the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: How a company uses its money can change its ability to grow. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forA plan for using money was shared to help growth projects.
Also watch forA capital allocation plan was announced that limits growth or raises debt.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target signals growth and operational success. It can influence stock performance.
Supportive ifReported revenue increase of at least $20.1 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue increase reported is less than $20.1 million in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows trust in steady earnings and growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95 to $3.15 in Q3.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance to below $2.95 for 2026.
Why it matters: The $20.1 million revenue increase helps with financial stability and growth.
Supportive ifRevenue increase from the Washington rate case is reflected in Q3 financial results.
Worry ifRevenue from the Washington rate case is not realized in Q3 results.
Why it matters: Customer growth affects revenue and helps the company meet its long-term growth goals.
Supportive ifCustomer growth rate exceeds 2.0% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCustomer growth rate falls below 2.0% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: The outcome could affect revenue growth and strategy for NW Natural.
Watch forThe Texas Railroad Commission agrees to the SiEnergy rate case.
Also watch forThe rate case is rejected or changed a lot.
Why it matters: The result will affect revenue and growth for NW Natural's Texas operations.
Watch forSiEnergy's rate case is approved, leading to a $12 million revenue increase.
Also watch forIf SiEnergy's rate case is denied or changed, expected revenue will go down.
Why it matters: Updates on the MX3 project can indicate long-term growth and revenue potential.
Watch forManagement says they finished key steps for the MX3 gas storage project.
Also watch forManagement is delaying the MX3 project timeline. They are also reporting big problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,427 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.