NW Natural (NWN)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.31+2.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NWN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-22
Other Events As previously disclosed, on May 4, 2026, SiEnergy Gas, Pines Gas, and Pines Gas Development filed a request for a general rate increase (Rate Case) with the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC). The filing included a request to consolidate the corporate, regulatory and rate structures of these entities and requested an overall revenue requirement increase of $12.0 million. On September 22, 2026, SiEnergy Gas, Pines Gas, Pines Gas Development, the staff of the RRC, the coalition of…
Why it matters: The settlement gives SiEnergy an $8.6 million yearly revenue increase, below its $12.0 million request. RRC approval would let the new rates begin.
Supportive ifThe Texas Railroad Commission approves the settlement. New rates take effect in November 2026.
Worry ifThe commission rejects or delays the settlement, or new rates do not take effect in November 2026.
Why it matters: Management expects full-year EPS in the upper half of its range. Q3 results will show whether that pace continues.
Watch forOn Nov. 5, NWN reports Q3 EPS and keeps its full-year outlook in the upper half of $2.95–$3.15.
Also watch forOn Nov. 5, NWN lowers its $2.95–$3.15 full-year EPS range or says results now point below its midpoint.
Why it matters: The project costs about $300 million and supports a higher long-term EPS growth target. A timely start keeps the end-2029 service goal in view.
Supportive ifNW Natural issues Notice to Proceed by late 2027 and keeps the end-2029 in-service date.
Worry ifNotice to Proceed slips past late 2027, or management moves the end-2029 in-service target.
Why it matters: The company plans large system investments to grow its rate base. Spending far below plan may point to project delays; spending above plan may raise funding needs.
Watch forFull-year 2026 capital spending lands between $500 million and $550 million.
Also watch for2026 capital spending for the full year is below $500 million or above $550 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,638 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The settlement sets rules for future rate updates tied to plant investment. A filing would show SiEnergy using this path to seek rate changes.
Supportive ifSiEnergy files its first GRIP rate update within two years of its May 4, 2026 rate case filing.
Worry ifNo first GRIP filing appears by May 4, 2028.