NW Natural (NWN)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.19-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
NW Natural serves regulated gas customers in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Management reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95 to $3.15. They plan a revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 2026. The stock trades cheaper than peers with a P/E of 16.99 versus 25.28.
The company missed Q1 EPS by 2.9%. Revenue declined slightly year-over-year in Q1. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is fragile. Capital allocation events and rate case litigation pose risks.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $56. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this but we see risks in execution and sector headwinds.
Breaks if: Material off-balance sheet obligations or debt levels impair credit profile
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company with a multi-year growth focus, but it faces challenges due to management volatility and sector headwinds. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance.
The market appears to price in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. Valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some cautious sentiment is already reflected.
Fundamentals are likely to show steady progress, particularly with management reaffirming earnings guidance and securing revenue increases from regulatory approvals. However, the mixed status of the MX3 gas storage expansion project introduces some uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth projects. Additionally, broader sector performance and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could significantly influence NWN's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95-$3.15. This comes after an earnings beat, but revenue fell short of estimates. Concerns about revenue performance have increased.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain 2026 EPS guidance within $2.95 to $3.15 range and target long-term EPS growth of 4%-6%, potentially 5%-7% with MX3 project.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95–$3.15 and long-term EPS growth targets of 4%–6%, with potential increase to 5%–7% including MX3 project. Actual EPS was $2.33 for first half 2026 versus $2.11 prior year, showing progress but still below guidance midpoint. The trajectory is delivering consistent reaffirmation with steady EPS growth.
“2026 EPS expected in upper half of $2.95 – $3.15 guidance range with long-term targets reaffirmed.”
“Reaffirming 2026 guidance of $2.95 – $3.15 and long-term targets.”
“Initiated 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95–3.15 and reaffirmed long-term EPS growth target of 4–6%.”
Breaks if: Rate case results in revenue cuts or lower allowed returns
Breaks if: Revenue increase falls below $20 million starting August 2026
Management plans a revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 1, 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, NWN's performance will depend on effective management execution and favorable sector conditions. Not investment advice.