Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NW Natural (NWN)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.81+0.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.22 → 3.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NWN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation to avoid excessive debt or off-balance obligations | A supporting condition in NW Natural's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and no material off-balance sheet obligations. | Intact | Material off-balance sheet obligations or debt levels impair credit profile | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated Utilities business with a multi-year growth thesis supported by rate-case revenue and earnings guidance. The thesis is intact, but execution quality has weakened and the evidence snapshot rates management as volatile.
NWN is described as expensive, despite a valuation model indicating it is cheap versus peers; the model also shows a 0.68 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap. The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified, with low fragility, so it does not show that weak execution concerns are fully concentrated in expectations.
Near term, management’s 2026 EPS guidance is on track, first-half EPS rose from $2.11 to $2.33 year over year, and a Washington rate order supports revenue growth. The MX3 storage expansion is progressing but is not expected to add revenue yet, while declining earnings-surprise trends, a recent deep miss, litigation, and a capital-allocation event remain risks.
The key company-specific swing factor is whether NWN maintains its recently raised guidance; a reversal and cut could further weaken management credibility. Over the multi-year view, rate cuts and continued earnings strength among sector peers could support the backdrop, while execution on MX3 and regulatory plans remains important.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NWN’s thesis rests on delivering guidance and planned regulated growth, with weaker execution signals tempering strong recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95 to $3.15. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.95 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “31, 2026. 2026 GUIDANCE AND LONG-TERM TARGETS We now expect 2026 EPS in the upper half of our guidance range and are reaffirming our long-term targets.” “This guidance assumes continued customer growth, average weather conditions, and no significant changes in prevailing regulatory policies, mechanisms, or assumed outcomes, or significant local, state or federal laws, legislation or regulations.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Favorable resolution of Washington Utilities rate case | A supporting condition in NW Natural's published investment case. The stated target is Rate case settled without adverse revenue impact. | Improving | Rate case results in revenue cuts or lower allowed returns | Qualitative: Settlement reached with $20.1M Year 1 revenue increase News confirms SiEnergy reached a Texas settlement, but the key Washington rate case resulted in a $20.1M Year 1 revenue increase. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 1, 2026 | They plan a revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 2026. | Intact | Revenue increase falls below $20 million starting August 2026 | Revenue: $243.552M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20.1 million USD increase. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026243,552,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.23 → $3.23 · observed estimates
$1.48B → $1.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.23 | $1,477,046,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.23 | $1,491,080,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.23 | $1,491,080,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.23 | $1,477,013,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.23 | $1,491,080,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.23 | $1,491,080,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.23 | $1,491,080,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.23 | $1,458,763,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.23 | $1,458,763,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.23 | $1,491,280,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.22 | $1,457,360,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.22 | $1,435,277,540 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.22 | $1,435,333,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.22 | $1,426,557,143 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.22 | $1,426,557,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.22 | $1,426,557,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.22 | $1,426,557,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.22 | $1,426,557,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.23 | $1,420,362,500 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.