NXPI
NXP SemiconductorsNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NXPI has a composite score of 29.2 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is driven by high confidence at 88.5 and a guidance credibility of 75.0, despite an elevated risk label of 58.3. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.24
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.21 → $3.53 (+9.8% / 30d). 21 raised, 0 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 3 downgrades / 30d, 16 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Navigate challenging market conditionsgrowthwatchprovisional
4/28: “NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue showed limited progress, fluctuating from $3,111M in 2024-Q4 to $3,181M in 2026-Q1. Despite challenging conditions, NXP's revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 is $3,350M to $3,550M, indicating cautious optimism. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Redeem outstanding senior notescapital allocationmixed64% progress
4/20: “NXP announced the redemption of US$750 million outstanding 3.875% senior notes due June 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. NXP redeemed US$750 million of 3.875% senior notes due June 2026, aligning with its capital allocation strategy. This action reflects a focus on managing debt obligations effectively. Delivering on stated priority with the redemption completed.
- 3.Leverage core end market improvementsgrowthwatchprovisional
7/22: “Our guidance reflects the combination of an emerging cyclical improvement in NXP's core end markets.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Revenue increased from $2,835M in 2025-Q1 to $3,181M in 2026-Q1, showing some growth. However, the trajectory remains cautious with limited substantive delivery on leveraging core market improvements. Persistent statement, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | $1.75 – $2.14 | $2.64 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.22 – $2.62 | $3.11 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.40 – $2.81 | $3.35 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $4.01 – $4.41 | $3.05 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 75%; 252d 43%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 28/100, drawdown 51/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 4 guided quarters · 16.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Navigate challenging market conditions
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on effectively navigating through challenging market conditions.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue showed limited progress, fluctuating from $3,111M in 2024-Q4 to $3,181M in 2026-Q1. Despite challenging conditions, NXP's revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 is $3,350M to $3,550M, indicating cautious optimism. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect final closing sometime during the first half of 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Our guidance reflects the combination of an emerging cyclical improvement in NXP's core end markets.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“NXP continues to effectively navigate through a challenging set of market conditions.”
- #2
Redeem outstanding senior notes
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Redeem the principal amount of outstanding senior notes due June 2026.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. NXP redeemed US$750 million of 3.875% senior notes due June 2026, aligning with its capital allocation strategy. This action reflects a focus on managing debt obligations effectively. Delivering on stated priority with the redemption completed.
US$750 million outstanding 3.875% senior notes redeemed64%CEO/CFO:“NXP announced the redemption of US$750 million outstanding 3.875% senior notes due June 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-20Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“NXP announced the redemption of US$750 million outstanding 3.875% senior notes due June 2026.”
- #3
Leverage core end market improvements
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Capitalize on improvements in core end markets to drive growth.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Revenue increased from $2,835M in 2025-Q1 to $3,181M in 2026-Q1, showing some growth. However, the trajectory remains cautious with limited substantive delivery on leveraging core market improvements. Persistent statement, narrow delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Our guidance reflects the combination of an emerging cyclical improvement in NXP's core end markets.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Our guidance reflects the combination of an emerging cyclical improvement in NXP's core end markets.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NXPI NXP Semiconductors | +29 | fair | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, NXP Semiconductors N.V. ("NXP") issued a press release regarding NXP’s financial results for its first quarter 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by referen…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-2018d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On April 20, 2026, NXP Semiconductors N.V. ("NXP") issued a press release announcing that its subsidiary, NXP B.V., together with NXP USA Inc. and NXP Funding LLC, has redeemed the principal amount of US$750 million outstanding 3.875% senior notes due June 2026 (the “Notes”), in accordance with the terms of the applicable indenture covering the Notes. A copy of the Company's press release announcing the redemption is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, an…
capital allocationneutralscore 34 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 12, 2026, the Board approved the payment of an interim dividend of $1.014 per ordinary share for the first quarter of 2026. The interim dividend will be paid on April 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 25, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release announcing the dividend payment is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated by reference herein.
capital allocationneutralscore 14 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. On February 4, 2026, Ms. Jennifer Wuamett, EVP, General Counsel, Secretary and Chief Sustainability Officer of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the “Company”), provided notice that she would voluntarily retire as General Counsel and Secretary of the Company on June 30, 2026. Mr. Michael Hoffmann, currently serving as SVP, Chief Commercial Counsel and Deputy General Counsel, will be appointed as Gen…
executive changeneutralscore 10 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 6, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), NXP B.V. (the “Company”), a wholly owned, direct subsidiary of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (“NXP N.V.”), and NXP Funding LLC (together with the Company, the “Borrowers”), a wholly owned, indirect subsidiary of NXP N.V., the lenders and letter of credit issuers party thereto and Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent, amended and restated its revolving credit agreement (the “Second Amended and Restated Revolv…
capital allocationneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.