Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NextCure Inc (NXTC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.12-12.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXTC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress SIM0505 Phase 1 dose escalation and start dose optimization | A primary condition in NextCure Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Initiate dose optimization and progress dose escalation study. | Improving | failure to progress SIM0505 Phase 1 trials or start dose optimization | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making healthcare company rather than a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with management making progress on the Avere merger but mixed evidence on clinical progress and capital preservation.
NXTC is described as cheap versus peers, but it has no earnings and the valuation model has only medium confidence. The evidence does not spell out what the market expects, and no valuation fragility signals were triggered.
Near term, results are weak relative to the industry, and the next report carries an elevated risk of a miss for a small company in a high-miss-rate industry. Management is progressing toward the Avere merger, while SIM0505 work has shifted from trial expansion toward preserving the program’s value; cash fell to $20.1 million by 2026-Q2, with resources expected to fund operations into the first half of 2027.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing the Avere merger, preserving enough capital, and showing that SIM0505 retains value. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and continued job-market weakness, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NXTC’s thesis rests on merger execution, cash discipline, and clinical progress, against a backdrop of weak financial performance and high risk. The evidence is limited and confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Our SIM0505 program reached critical milestones this quarter, headlined by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA) granting Fast Track designation for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC) and the upcoming presentation of initial Phase 1 data at the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO 2026)," said Michael Richman, President and CEO of NextCure.” “NextCure anticipates increasing the number of trial sites in the second half of 2026, including the activation of sites in Canada and Europe, with continued study site additions in 2027.”
Maintain enough cash to fund operations into first half 2027 | The company aims to fund operations into 2027. | Intact | cash runway falls below covering operations into first half 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve earnings to reduce net losses | A supporting condition in NextCure Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss less than -$7.32 in FY26. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$7.32 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-2.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss less than -$7.32 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-2.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-7.07 → $-1.38 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-7.07 | $0 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-5.95 | $7,000,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.44 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.44 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.38 | $7,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.