NextCure Inc (NXTC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.82-0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -58.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXTC — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant To the extent required by
Dated 2026-07-14
Changes in Control of Registrant To the extent required by this Item, the information included in
Why it matters: Funding is crucial for NextCure to continue its operations and clinical trials.
Supportive ifNews of new funding or partnerships that provide money for operations.
Worry ifNo funding news raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth picks up, it could benefit NextCure's performance.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Good trial results could increase NextCure's value and market position.
Supportive ifPhase 1 data presented at ASCO 2026 shows good results.
Worry ifNegative trial data or delays in trial updates.
Why it matters: Good data could show that SIM0505 works. This may help investors feel better.
Supportive ifData shows a strong response rate of over 55% in gynecologic cancers.
Worry ifData presented fails to show a meaningful ORR or raises safety concerns.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$549 on $10,000 · ±5.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,382 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,879 loss on $10,000 · 88.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Restructuring can change how well the company works. It also affects cost management during the merger.
Watch forWorkforce cuts and cost savings have been successfully completed.
Also watch forThere may be more delays or issues in the restructuring process.
Why it matters: Updates on cash reserves will show if NextCure can fund operations through 2027.
Worry ifNextCure reports it has enough cash to fund operations into 2027.
Less concerning ifNextCure announces it does not have enough cash to fund operations beyond early 2027.
Why it matters: Successful restructuring is key for cutting costs. It helps align operations with merger goals.
Supportive ifThey finished their restructuring efforts. They cut costs and made financial results better.
Worry ifRestructuring efforts fail to yield expected cost reductions or lead to further layoffs.
Why it matters: Key milestones for SIM0505 will show if the drug is progressing well. Positive results can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news from the Q2 2026 SIM0505 clinical trial.
Worry ifManagement shares delays or bad news from the Q2 2026 SIM0505 clinical trial.
Why it matters: NextCure has low cash reserves. This may hurt its ability to fund operations and trials.
Worry ifCash reserves remain above $20 million as of the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifCash reserves are below $20 million, showing financial strain.
Why it matters: The merger is crucial for NextCure's future and stockholder value. It will create a stronger company focused on developing new therapies.
Supportive ifThe merger closes in the second half of 2026 with stockholder approval.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close due to lack of stockholder approval or other conditions.