NextCure Inc (NXTC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.85-1.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -63.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
NXTC — officer change
Dated 2026-10-30
Chief Medical Officer — Dr. Udayan Guha: The departure of the Chief Medical Officer is tied to a pending merger and includes severance benefits, indicating an orderly exit rather than a sudden negative shock.
Why it matters: The trial is the next test of Avere’s lead drug. The merger announcement says its funding is meant to cover the trial and its readout.
Watch forAvere confirms the Phase 2b psoriasis trial has started by March 31, 2027.
Also watch forAvere has not started the trial by March 31, 2027, or reports a pause or delay.
Why it matters: The merger sets the company’s next path. A close also starts the two-year period for CVR payments tied to legacy assets.
Watch forStockholders of both companies approve the merger. All closing conditions are met, and the deal closes by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forA stockholder vote fails, a closing condition is unmet, or the deal ends or is delayed past 2026.
Why it matters: LigaChem now leads the program. NextCure may get milestone and royalty payments if development moves forward.
Supportive ifLigaChem reports a clear LNCB74 trial or development milestone, such as a trial update or a new study step.
Worry ifLigaChem pauses or ends LNCB74 development, or reports no further trial progress.
Why it matters: NextCure holders are set to own about 1.21% of the combined company. They may also receive 90% of net proceeds from some legacy asset deals.
Watch forFinal terms give NextCure holders about 1.21% ownership. They also get CVRs tied to 90% of net proceeds from eligible asset deals for two years.
Also watch forFinal terms show a much lower ownership share, or CVR terms differ from the announced 90% or two-year period.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$552 on $10,000 · ±5.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,246 loss on $10,000 · 12.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,879 loss on $10,000 · 88.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.