Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc (OBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.62-6.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OBIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -96.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
OBIO — officer change
Dated 2026-02-13
The filing describes the approval of a new cash bonus plan and updated RSU vesting policy, which are routine management actions.
Why it matters: Full enrollment is a key step toward primary results for this second pivotal program. The company lists those results as a major upcoming event.
Supportive ifThe company reports that the Virtue SAB pivotal trial has reached full enrollment in 2027, in line with its stated target.
Worry ifThe company reports that full enrollment will be delayed past 2027. Or it lowers its enrollment target without giving a clear new date.
Why it matters: The trial tests whether AVIM lowers blood pressure and meets its safety goal. Positive results could support Medtronic's FDA filing.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2027, the trial meets its primary blood pressure goal, showing at least a 5 mmHg difference between groups, and meets its safety goal.
Worry ifThe trial misses the blood pressure goal or fails its safety goal, or results are not submitted in Q2 2027 as stated.
Why it matters: The September overview ties its trial plans to cash runway through 2027. A shorter runway could put pressure on those plans.
Worry ifThe company reports that its cash will not cover operations through 2027. Or it says it needs new funding before then.
Less concerning ifThe company confirms cash still covers planned work through 2027, with no new funding needed before then.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $564 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,477 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.