Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc (OBIO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.62-6.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OBIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
cash proceeds of up to $21 million from Vivasure acquisition | The company recently gained $21 million from an acquisition. | Intact | cash proceeds from acquisition fall materially short of $21 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story in Healthcare, with a sector backdrop that is currently supportive. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has recently shifted from mixed to cautious, and confidence in the evidence is medium.
OBIO trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and identifies a sizable expectations gap driven by re-rating. The evidence labels the priced-in setup unjustified, though no fragility gates have fired, so the market’s expectations may not be well supported by current loss-making results.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated: the company has erratic recent surprises, and the evidence flags a 45% miss probability into the next report. Over the multi-year view, enrollment in the BACKBEAT pivotal trial is ahead of its target, with primary endpoint data expected in Q2 2027; partner funding supports development, while expected milestone proceeds remain modest and need to be delivered.
The main swing factor is whether OBIO completes the AVIM trial and meets regulatory milestones on its stated timeline. A guidance cut or continued weakness in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while strength among Healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OBIO’s thesis rests on trial execution, partnership support, and milestone revenue, against a backdrop of losses and elevated risk. The business setup remains intact, but the premium valuation and low-confidence expectations leave little support in the evidence for assuming execution will be smooth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It expects revenue of at least $11 million in 2026 and $30 million in 2025. |
| Intact |
| annual revenue falls below $11 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $88,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202688,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue reaches at least $30 million in 2025 | It expects revenue of at least $11 million in 2026 and $30 million in 2025. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $30 million in FY25 | Revenue: $88,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202688,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.45 → $-1.51 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.46 | $655,430 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.45 | $643,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.45 | $655,429 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.50 | $577,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.50 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.50 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.50 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.50 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.50 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.51 | $571,571 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.51 | $583,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.51 | $577,286 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.