Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.34-3.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.29 → 2.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OCFC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete and integrate Flushing Financial acquisition | OceanFirst finished buying Flushing Financial, growing its business. | Intact | Acquisition not completed or integration delayed beyond 2026 | Integration on track for end-2026 target Shareholders approved deal; multifamily loans sold; cost savings and loan growth anticipated in Q4. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank execution and integration story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent earnings beats and improved momentum are constructive, while overall performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: OCFC is tagged as cheap versus peers, yet the overall value assessment is expensive and the model shows a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the evidence says weak execution is priced in, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulence.
Near term, recent results show growth in loans and deposits and a higher net interest margin, while reported expenses rose with merger costs and a full quarter of Flushing activity. Management says integration is complete and expects savings to begin in Q4 2026, but those savings are not yet established in reported figures. The next-call guidance and the effect of possible rate cuts remain risks; the stated near-term miss probability is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on Flushing savings appearing without weakening loan, deposit, and margin progress. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable under the evidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The commercial real estate repositioning is also worth tracking, since the loan sale is complete but its lasting balance-sheet effect is not isolated.
For a 1-3 year view, improving operating momentum offers support, but fragile earnings quality, uneven execution, and conflicting valuation signals keep the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It pays a steady $0.2 dividend per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.2 in 2026 |
Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.2 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Capital Outlook: With the completion of the core conversion and substantially all major integration activities, the Company expects to resume excess capital accretion in the fourth quarter of 2026.” “• Balance Sheet Repositioning: The Company sold $1.31 billion of multifamily loans from the Flushing acquisition at a price of 92.25% and invested the $1.20 billion of net proceeds into highly-liquid, investment grade securities.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase operating income to at least $275 million in 2026 | Operating income rose to $27 million in early 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $275 million in 2026 | Operating margin: -1.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $275 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-1.208469 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue between $25 million and $35 million in 2026 | Revenue is expected between $25 million and $35 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $25 million in 2026 | Revenue: $209.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026209,604,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.31 → $2.26 · observed estimates
$0.75B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.31 | $753,353,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.31 | $759,503,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.31 | $758,043,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.32 | $761,265,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.31 | $755,623,400 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.28 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.28 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.28 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.28 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.28 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.30 | $755,004,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.30 | $754,921,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.30 | $754,921,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.29 | $753,438,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.29 | $752,224,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.29 | $752,224,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.29 | $752,224,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.29 | $752,224,667 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.29 | $752,216,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.28 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.28 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.27 | $751,121,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.28 | $751,604,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.26 | $748,169,333 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.