OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.43+0.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OCFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OCFC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-31
OTHER EVENTS In the press release described in Item 2.02, the Company announced that the Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s outstanding common stock. The cash dividend will be in the amount of $0.20 per share and will be payable on August 21, 2026 to the stockholders of record at the close of business on August 10, 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the multifamily loan sales lowers risk and helps the balance sheet.
Supportive ifThe company has sold the last $1.4 billion of multifamily loans.
Worry ifThe sale of multifamily loans is delayed or not completed as planned.
Why it matters: A strong net interest margin helps profits. It shows good loan management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains above 3.00% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 2.90% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for OceanFirst's growth strategy. It could boost market share and income.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the acquisition is done. Integration will then start.
Worry ifThe acquisition might be delayed by regulators. It could also be canceled.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It helps investors trust the finances.
Supportive ifAnnouncement confirming the dividend remains at $0.2 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut below $0.2 per share.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for OceanFirst's growth strategy. It could boost market position.
Supportive ifFlushing Financial is now part of OceanFirst. An official announcement will confirm this.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or problems in the integration process.
Why it matters: Full integration will help realize synergies and improve efficiency. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says Flushing's integration and rebranding will be done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifIntegration is delayed past Q3 2026. This affects expected synergies.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares the quarterly cash dividend at $0.20 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or suspended in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects investor outlook.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,539 loss on $10,000 · 15.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.