Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ORAGENICS INC (OGEN)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.35-6.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OGEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Progress Phase IIa clinical trial of ONP-002 | Oragenics advances its lead drug ONP-002 with Phase IIa trials approved. | Improving | significant delays or failure in Phase IIa trial progress | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making clinical-development company, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with ONP-002 milestones progressing, but confidence remains low.
The valuation model indicates a durable premium to peers, but its confidence is low. The evidence does not specify what clinical or commercial success the market already assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, OGEN remains loss-making, and the next report carries elevated miss risk for a small company in a high-miss-rate industry. Over the multi-year view, management reports ONP-002 Phase IIa work is on track, with an FDA submission for Phase IIb targeted for Q4 2026; the CardioDialysis license plan has no delivery metrics yet. The August notice of a possible listing-rule issue adds a material concern.
The thesis depends on OGEN meeting clinical milestones and providing evidence that the new TBI platform can advance beyond an early-stage license plan. A guidance cut or continued weakening in jobs data could weigh on the near-term business backdrop, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view is a speculative clinical-development thesis with some milestone progress, but losses, high risk, low confidence, and the listing-rule notice remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to control operating losses near -$2.2M net income and cash flow in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| net income or cash from operations falls below -$2.2M per quarter persistently |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Effective CFO leadership to improve financial management | The company appointed John Spencer as CFO to strengthen financial leadership. | Intact | no measurable improvement in financial management or cost control | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.42 → $-0.42 · observed estimates
FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.42 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.