OKE
OneokNYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, OKE has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of 3.2 and a medium confidence level of 77.4. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macro scenario if inflation reverses and an unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut. The sector score is low at 2.6, indicating potential challenges in the energy sector. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.42 → $1.46 (+2.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 5 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion. This reflects a positive outlook for 2026, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
- 2.Maintain capital expenditure rangecapital allocationmixed57% progress
2/23: “Total 2026 capital expenditures are expected to range between $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion. This indicates a stable capital allocation plan, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
- 3.Increase EPS guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Earnings per diluted share increased to a midpoint of $5.53.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the EPS guidance to a midpoint of $5.53 for 2026. This reflects a positive outlook for earnings, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 53/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance
GrowthManagement has increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion for 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion. This reflects a positive outlook for 2026, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
0%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion.”
- #2
Maintain capital expenditure range
Capital allocationManagement expects total 2026 capital expenditures to range between $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion. This indicates a stable capital allocation plan, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
57%CEO/CFO:“Total 2026 capital expenditures are expected to range between $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-23Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Total 2026 capital expenditures are expected to range between $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion.”
- #3
Increase EPS guidance
GrowthManagement has increased the earnings per diluted share guidance to a midpoint of $5.53 for 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management increased the EPS guidance to a midpoint of $5.53 for 2026. This reflects a positive outlook for earnings, but as it is newly stated, the trajectory is yet to be observed.
0%CEO/CFO:“Earnings per diluted share increased to a midpoint of $5.53.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Earnings per diluted share increased to a midpoint of $5.53.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
14 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OKE Oneok | +3.2 | — | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-28)-16 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.1 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and increased 2026 financial guidance. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-03-251mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 20, 2026, Pattye L. Moore informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of ONEOK, Inc. (“ONEOK”) of her decision to retire from the Board at the end of her current term and not stand for re-election as a director at ONEOK’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”), which is scheduled for May 20, 2026. Ms. Moore’s current t…
executive changeneutralscore 20 - 2026-02-232mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 23, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025, and announced 2026 financial guidance. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 12 - 2026-01-263mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers New Directors On January 21, 2026, the Board of Directors (the ONEOK Board) of ONEOK, Inc. (ONEOK) elected Mark A. McCollum and Precious Williams Owodunni as directors to the ONEOK Board, effective January 23, 2026. In connection with the election of Mr. McCollum and Ms. Owodunni, the ONEOK Board increased the size of the ONEOK Board from 10 directo…
executive changeneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.