Outset Medical, Inc. (OM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.44+6.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OM — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-08-28
General Counsel — John Brottem: The General Counsel is resigning to pursue other opportunities without any dispute, representing a standard executive departure.
Why it matters: Higher margins can help narrow losses. Q1 and Q2 margins rose year over year, but the company still reported net losses.
Watch forA quarterly report shows non-GAAP gross margin in the low-to-mid 40% range, matching the 2026 outlook.
Also watch forA quarterly report shows non-GAAP gross margin below the low-40% range. Or, the company lowers its margin outlook.
Why it matters: Outset used cash in both reported 2026 quarters and still posted a net loss. Lower cash use would ease pressure on its $151M cash balance.
Watch forA quarterly report shows cash used below $9.5M, with the cash balance above $151M.
Also watch forA quarterly report shows cash used above $9.5M, with the cash balance below $151M.
Why it matters: Recurring sales from cartridges and service held near flat in both Q1 and Q2. Growth would show stronger use of the installed Tablo base.
Supportive ifQuarterly recurring revenue rises year over year above $22.5M, the Q1 2025 level.
Worry ifQuarterly recurring revenue falls year over year below the $22.1M reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The company kept its 2026 revenue range after uneven quarterly sales. Q3 revenue helps show if it can reach that range.
Watch forQ3 results keep full-year revenue guidance at $125M–$130M, with revenue growth on track to meet that range.
Also watch forThe company cuts its $125M–$130M revenue range, or Q3 results make that range unattainable.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$292 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $841 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,682 loss on $10,000 · 76.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next report is close to year-end and can show whether revenue and margin plans still hold. The company last kept both outlooks in August.
Watch forThe November 4 report keeps the $125M–$130M revenue range and the low-to-mid 40% margin outlook.
Also watch forThe November 4 report cuts either the revenue range or the margin outlook.