Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Outset Medical, Inc. (OM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.44+6.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain non-GAAP gross margin near 45% in 2026 | A primary condition in Outset Medical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 45%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 40% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Outset reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance of $125 million to $130 million and continues to expect non-GAAP gross margin to be in the low-40% to mid-40% range for the full year.” ““We delivered a solid first quarter and continued to make meaningful progress on our path to profitability, driven by disciplined execution and another quarter of record gross margin performance,” said Leslie Trigg, Chair and Chief Executive Officer.” Gross profit was $13.671 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OM is a high-risk, loss-making healthcare business with a sector backdrop that has improved. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is maintaining its 2026 guidance, but recent results have been weaker than its industry cohort.
The evidence does not include a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether OM looks cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. The market appears sensitive to guidance, and the recent earnings misses leave little room for execution to slip without adding concern.
Near term, management is targeting 2026 revenue of $125 million to $130 million, with non-GAAP gross margin, meaning gross margin calculated without certain excluded costs, in the low to mid-40% range. First-half margin improved to 43.0% from 38.0% a year earlier, but two recent earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss make delivery uncertain. The HCA fleet refresh agreement is a potential customer-base and backlog expansion, but its financial impact is not yet clear.
The near-term thesis depends on maintaining guidance and delivering the next results; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers such as ABT, MDT, and SYK could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, execution on revenue growth, margins, and the HCA agreement remains central.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OM’s thesis has some support from improving margins, maintained guidance, and a stronger sector backdrop, but loss-making results, recent misses, and high risk leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Expand customer base via HCA fleet refresh starting 2026 | A supporting condition in Outset Medical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is customer base growth from HCA refresh. | Improving | no revenue growth or customer gains from HCA refresh by end 2026 | Q3 rev $33.6M (beat) vs FY26 target $125M-$130M HCA fleet refresh agreement signed; Q3 revenue beat supports 2026 growth guidance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also signed our first refresh agreement, which enhances backlog visibility and marks an important milestone as we begin to capitalize on a significant refresh opportunity.” ““Consistently strong customer satisfaction and retention are expanding adoption of Tablo across our existing customer base and fueling new insourced dialysis partnerships with leading health systems.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue near $127.5 million | A primary condition in Outset Medical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$127.5 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $125 million in 2026 | Revenue: $33.596M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$127.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202633,596,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Guidance Outset reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance of $125 million to $130 million and continues to expect non-GAAP gross margin to be in the low-40% to mid-40% range for the full year.” “2026 Financial Guidance Outset reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance of $125 million to $130 million, a 5% to 9% increase over $119.5 million in 2025.” Revenue was $33.596 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.18 → $-2.29 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.18 | $139,266,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.21 | $139,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.21 | $139,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.18 | $139,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.29 | $139,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.