Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Orion Properties, Inc. (ONL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.35-5.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
core FFO improvement | They aim to improve core FFO to $0.72-$0.77 this year. | Intact | core FFO falls below $0.72 next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk real estate situation rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with stable management but weak recent financial performance and low confidence in the assessment.
The valuation model describes ONL as cheap versus peers, while also indicating a peer premium and a negative expectations gap. Model confidence is low, so these signals offer limited clarity on what the market already assumes.
Recent reports include several earnings beats, including a very large beat on a near-zero prior-year base, but the evidence also describes the business as loss-making and its performance as well below its industry cohort. Near term, the miss-risk assessment is quiet, but smaller size and a high-miss-rate industry remain risks.
The multi-year view depends partly on whether earnings beats continue and estimates rise, though the latest large beat came from a very low comparison base. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness in sector bellwethers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ONL’s thesis hinges on sustained operating improvement and a supportive real estate backdrop, but current losses and low confidence leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Orion Properties, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=6.0. |
| Intact |
| debt to EBITDA exceeds 6.8x next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue stabilization | A supporting condition in Orion Properties, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below -3% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.26 → $-0.26 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.26 | $137,882,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.