NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track ORCL free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Application Software is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 17% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 42%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 58% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskOracle's growth in cloud revenue must continue to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 21% year over year in the latest quarter, and the company has recently beaten earnings expectations. It trades at 20× P/E versus a peer median of 37×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is the potential for a credibility hit if Oracle cuts guidance after recently raising it, which our model puts at a 12% probability of a miss next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. ORCL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 43 analysts currently covering ORCL (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ORCL in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.60. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Application Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Invest in AI Cloud Infrastructure and Datacenter Expansion
Positive outlook on AI capacity supports investment in AI Cloud Infrastructure.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $141.60
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $141.60.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Invest in AI Cloud Infrastructure and Datacenter Expansion
AI infrastructure investments may face headwinds.
Advances: Invest in AI Cloud Infrastructure and Datacenter Expansion
AI agents enhance cloud infrastructure and align with AI investment goals.
Advances: Invest in AI Cloud Infrastructure and Datacenter Expansion
Increased confidence supports AI cloud infrastructure investment.
Advances: Grow Cloud Revenue and Remaining Performance Obligations
Inclusion in conviction list supports cloud revenue growth.
Threatens: Maintain Capital Discipline with $50B Capex in FY26
Legal action could impact capital discipline and future investments.
Threatens: Invest in AI Cloud Infrastructure and Datacenter Expansion
Concerns about AI revenue timing could hinder growth objectives.
Threatens: Maintain Capital Discipline with $50B Capex in FY26
Concerns about debt may impact capital discipline objectives.
