O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put ORLY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 8% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMostly healthy — no soft spokes
ORLY's growth must continue to justify its current valuation. Recent earnings show steady revenue growth, with an 8% increase year over year. The stock trades at 28× P/E, above the peer median of 15×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. If ORLY cuts guidance, it could negatively impact the stock. The miss probability for the next quarter is 18%. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. ORLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering ORLY (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ORLY in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare ORLY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ORLY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Increased buyback program supports shareholder value and capital allocation.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $87.89
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $87.89.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Achieve revenue target for 2026
Strong revenue growth aligns with 2026 revenue targets.