ORLY
O’Reilly AutomotiveNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ORLY has a composite score of 6.2 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 77.4 and indicates moderate risk. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, with potential scenarios that could lead to both favorable and unfavorable changes in the composite estimate. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.86 (+0.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 2 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
5 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue target for 2026growthbehind0% progress
4/29: “The Company’s updated guidance for selected full-year 2026 financial data: Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $3.5 billion in 2025-Q4. The company aims to achieve a revenue target of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion for 2026. Current trajectory shows limited progress towards this target.
- 2.Maintain operating margin guidancecostbehind0% progress
4/29: “Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.3% to 19.8%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $608 million in 2025-Q4. The company aims to maintain operating margins between 19.3% and 19.8% for 2026. Current performance shows limited progress towards this goal.
- 3.Control capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/29: “Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a capital expenditure target of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion for 2026. Current disclosures do not provide specific capex figures for recent quarters, indicating limited visibility into progress.
- 4.Maintain gross margin guidancecostwatchprovisional
4/29: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
- 5.Generate free cash flowcapital allocationwatchprovisional
4/29: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.02 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 62/100, beta 2/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue target for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on meeting the revenue guidance of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $3.5 billion in 2025-Q4. The company aims to achieve a revenue target of $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion for 2026. Current trajectory shows limited progress towards this target.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company’s updated guidance for selected full-year 2026 financial data: Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Total revenue $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain operating margin guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04Ensure operating income as a percentage of sales remains within the 19.3% to 19.8% range for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $608 million in 2025-Q4. The company aims to maintain operating margins between 19.3% and 19.8% for 2026. Current performance shows limited progress towards this goal.
0%CEO/CFO:“Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.3% to 19.8%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.3% to 19.8%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Operating income as a percentage of sales 19.2% to 19.7%.”
- #3
Control capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Keep capital expenditures within the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion range for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a capital expenditure target of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion for 2026. Current disclosures do not provide specific capex figures for recent quarters, indicating limited visibility into progress.
35%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.”
- #4
Maintain gross margin guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04O'Reilly Automotive aims to keep gross profit as a percentage of sales between 51.5% and 52.0% for 2026.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29First seen 2026-05-04provisional - #5
Generate free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04The company expects to generate free cash flow between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion in 2026.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | +6.2 | full | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. The text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 12, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) issued and sold $850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.100% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The terms of the Notes are governed by an Indenture, dated as of May 20, 2019 (the “Base Indenture”), by and between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (f/k/a U.S. Bank National Association) (the “Trustee”), as supplemented by…
capital allocationpositivescore 18 - 2026-03-062mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On March 5 , 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representatives of the underwriters named on Schedule I thereto (the “Underwriters”), with respect to the Company’s issuance and sale of $850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.100% Sen…
capital allocationpositivescore 15 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its 2025 fourth quarter and full-year earnings. The text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-11-185mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On November 18, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a resolution to increase the authorization amount under its share repurchase program by an additional $2.0 billion, raising the aggregate authorization under the program to $29.75 billion. The additional $2.0 billion authorization is effective for a three-year period, beginning on November 18, 2025. Stock repurchases under the program may be made from time to time, a…
capital allocationpositivescore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.