Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.69+4.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBYI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
Why it matters: Starting the trial would meet a named development milestone. A delay would push back Puma's stated plan for alisertib.
Supportive ifPuma reports that ALISCA-Lung2 began enrolling patients by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifPuma reports that enrollment has not begun by the end of Q3 2026, or that the trial is delayed.
Why it matters: Puma raised its profit outlook after Q2 net income reached $8.2 million. Full-year results will test progress toward positive income.
Watch forPuma reports full-year net income of at least $17 million. This is within or above its stated $17–$20 million range.
Also watch forPuma reports full-year net income below $17 million or a net loss.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose year over year, and Puma raised its 2026 sales outlook. Q3 sales will test if that growth continues.
Watch forQ3 net product revenue is at least $54 million, within or above the stated $54–$56 million range.
Also watch forQ3 net product revenue is below $54 million.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow fell to $1.6 million in Q2 from $14.1 million a year earlier. Another negative quarter would weaken cash generation.
Worry ifQ3 net cash from operations is below zero.
Less concerning ifQ3 net cash from operations is above zero.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $376 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,578 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New trial data can test management's view that alisertib may help biomarker groups. A weak result could challenge that view.
Watch forPuma shares new ALISCA-Breast1 data in Q4 2026. It reports a stronger treatment effect in the biomarker groups it studies.
Also watch forPuma reports no stronger treatment effect in those groups, or says the Q4 data presentation is delayed.