Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.55+1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBYI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Achieving positive net income would signal financial health. It may attract more investors.
Supportive ifPuma reports a net income of $10M or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 2026 exceeds $3.75M.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would confirm the growth trend for NERLYNX. It shows demand is strong.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net product revenue reported within the range of $54 million to $56 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net product revenue reported below $54 million.
Why it matters: Health Care's growth rate impacts Puma's market position and future revenue potential. Slowing growth could signal challenges.
Worry ifHealth Care revenue growth re-accelerates back toward its highs, above 10%.
Less concerning ifHealth Care revenue growth is slowing down. It has fallen below 5%.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance would show confidence in growth. It could boost investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement expects to make over $225.5M in revenue for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $225.5M for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $391 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,578 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is key for advancing alisertib and shows commitment to R&D.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the ALISCA-Lung2 trial for small cell lung cancer will start soon.
Worry ifNo announcement of enrollment initiation by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New data may show how well alisertib works. This could affect future growth.
Watch forThere will be a presentation of positive new data from the ALISCA-Breast1 trial.
Also watch forThere will be a presentation of bad or unclear data from the ALISCA-Breast1 trial.
Why it matters: Another increase would show strong demand for NERLYNX and support growth expectations.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 2026 revenue guidance to more than $56 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps Q3 2026 revenue guidance at or below $54 million.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is getting more stable and growing.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported above $2 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 reported below $2 million.
Why it matters: Stabilizing cash flow is important for running the business and funding growth.
Watch forCash from operating activities was more than $1.6 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forCash from operating activities was less than $1.6 million in Q3 2026.