Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.69+4.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PBYI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or improve cash from operations above $15M | Cash from operations improved to $15.4M in 2026-Q1. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $10M in next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $1.624M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261,624,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-and-profitability improvement story, with recent results supporting the thesis. The signal has shifted to favorable, though the evidence window is only three to six months and the risk level remains elevated.
Valuation is mixed: the snapshot points to PBYI being cheap versus peers, while its peer premium measure is also high. Expectations are tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that the thesis depends on fragile assumptions.
Near term, the higher 2026 revenue and net income guidance, alongside three recent earnings beats, supports continued progress. Revenue growth and second-quarter net income improved, but operating cash flow fell sharply from the prior quarter, and the path to positive full-year net income is still mixed. The industry’s high rate of misses and recent peer misses add execution risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining revenue growth and reaching its raised net income guidance while maintaining positive operating cash flow. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility, while weakening employment data could add pressure across healthcare names. Continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the business shows improving results and an intact thesis, but cash flow and elevated execution risk remain important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~23.25%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 20% |
Gross margin: 77.92% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~23.25%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202677.921136 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive net income of about $11.5M in 2026 | The company aims for positive net income of about $11.5M in 2026. | Improving | Net income remains negative or below $10M in FY26 | Net income: $8.189M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income $10M to $13M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20268,189,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $225.5M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$225.5M. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $195M in FY26 | Revenue: $56.502M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$225.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202656,502,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.35 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.35 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.35 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.35 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.35 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.20 | $219,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $229,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.