PHM
PulteGroupNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PHM has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of 2.4 and a medium confidence level of 71.9. The score is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, sector trends, and management quality. Key drivers include macro growth, rates, inflation, and labor, with notable risks in momentum and sector performance. This scoring is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.62 → $2.35 (-10.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 12 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase share repurchase programcapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/23: “The Company announced a $1.5 billion increase in its share repurchase program.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced a $1.5 billion increase in its share repurchase program. In 2025-Q4, PulteGroup repurchased 2.4 million shares for $300 million. This indicates a strong commitment to capital allocation towards shareholder returns, with limited progress on the new increase so far.
- 2.Develop land pipeline for community growthgrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'Further developing a land pipeline that can routinely support community count growth of 3% to 5% annually.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company aims to develop a land pipeline to support 3% to 5% annual community count growth. While the strategic focus is clear, the financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating a recurring focus with narrow delivery so far.
- 3.Maintain strong cash flowscapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'Focused on intelligently turning our assets, generating strong cash flows.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Despite the focus on generating strong cash flows, cash from operating activities was -$80.8 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving this priority. The trajectory shows a need for improvement in cash flow management.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 38%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 43/100, drawdown 60/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase share repurchase program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Expand the share repurchase program by $1.5 billion to enhance shareholder value.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced a $1.5 billion increase in its share repurchase program. In 2025-Q4, PulteGroup repurchased 2.4 million shares for $300 million. This indicates a strong commitment to capital allocation towards shareholder returns, with limited progress on the new increase so far.
Repurchased 2.4 million common shares for $300 million in 2025-Q444%CEO/CFO:“The Company announced a $1.5 billion increase in its share repurchase program.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Repurchased 2.4 million common shares for $300 million.”
- #2
Develop land pipeline for community growth
GrowthFocus on developing a land pipeline to support 3% to 5% annual community count growth.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The company aims to develop a land pipeline to support 3% to 5% annual community count growth. While the strategic focus is clear, the financials do not yet show specific progress towards this target, indicating a recurring focus with narrow delivery so far.
65%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Further developing a land pipeline that can routinely support community count growth of 3% to 5% annually.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Developing a land pipeline to support community count growth of 3% to 5% annually.”
- #3
Maintain strong cash flows
Capital allocationFocus on generating strong cash flows to support business operations and investments.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Despite the focus on generating strong cash flows, cash from operating activities was -$80.8 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving this priority. The trajectory shows a need for improvement in cash flow management.
Cash from operating activities was -$80.8 million in 2025-Q444%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Focused on intelligently turning our assets, generating strong cash flows.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Focused on intelligently turning our assets, generating strong cash flows.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PHM PulteGroup | +2.4 | fair | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2025-01-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2025-01-30)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the earnings press release incorporated in such Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-04-2315d agoItem 8.01
OTHER EVENTS On April 23, 2026, the Company issued a separate press release announcing a $1.5 billion increase in its share repurchase program, effective April 22, 2026. A copy of this press release is filed as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
capital allocationpositivescore 36 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 20, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. (the “ Company ”) completed an underwritten public offering of a total of $800.0 million aggregate principal amount of its senior unsecured notes, consisting of $400.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.250% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”) and $400.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.900% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 2036 Notes ” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “ Notes ”), i…
capital allocationpositivescore 11 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of PulteGroup, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Governance Committee, increased the number of directors on the Board to 11 members and appointed Kristin Gannon as a director, effective February 10, 2026, to serve until the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of sh…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 10, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and each of its direct and indirect wholly-owned U.S. subsidiaries that guarantees the Company’s existing senior unsecured revolving credit facility (collectively, the “ Guarantors ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Truist Securities, Inc. and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named t…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.