PM
Philip Morris InternationalNYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PM has a composite score of 5.0 with a mixed signal label and medium confidence of 75.5. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of 15.5 and a management score of 57.9. The top drivers include macro labor, inflation, rates, and growth. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.14 → $2.04 (-4.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-29PM — debt issuanceimpact 0.31
- 2025-12-11PM — credit agreementimpact 0.27
- 2025-12-11PM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.21
- 2025-12-11PM — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.14
- 2024-11-21PM — credit agreementimpact 0.07
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Invest in smoke-free productscapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/22: “PMI has implemented an evolved organizational model with two primary business units: International and U.S., focusing on smoke-free products.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. PMI has allocated $1.4 to $1.6 billion in capital expenditures predominantly for smoke-free products. Despite the investment, net income was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$1.61 billion, indicating limited progress in financial returns from these investments so far.
- 2.Achieve organic revenue growthgrowthbehind0% progressprovisional
2/6: “Net revenue growth of 5% to 7% on an organic basis is expected for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $8.1 billion in 2025-Q4, down from $10.845 billion in 2025-Q3, showing a decline rather than growth. The trajectory indicates limited progress towards the 5% to 7% organic growth target.
- 3.Increase adjusted EPSgrowthbehind0% progress
4/22: “Adjusted Diluted EPS $8.36 - $8.51 is forecasted for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The adjusted EPS target for 2026 is $8.36 to $8.51. However, diluted EPS was $1.56 in 2026-Q1, down from $1.72 in 2025-Q1, indicating a declining trend and limited progress towards the EPS target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.93 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 59/100, beta 93/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 7.4% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Invest in smoke-free products
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Focus on capital allocation towards smoke-free products to drive future growth.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. PMI has allocated $1.4 to $1.6 billion in capital expenditures predominantly for smoke-free products. Despite the investment, net income was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$1.61 billion, indicating limited progress in financial returns from these investments so far.
35%CEO/CFO:“PMI has implemented an evolved organizational model with two primary business units: International and U.S., focusing on smoke-free products.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“PMI has implemented an evolved organizational model with two primary business units: International and U.S.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business.”
- #2
Achieve organic revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target organic revenue growth of 5% to 7% for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $8.1 billion in 2025-Q4, down from $10.845 billion in 2025-Q3, showing a decline rather than growth. The trajectory indicates limited progress towards the 5% to 7% organic growth target.
0%CEO/CFO:“Net revenue growth of 5% to 7% on an organic basis is expected for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Net revenue growth of 5% to 7% on an organic basis;”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Net revenue growth of around 6% to 8% on an organic basis.”
- #3
Increase adjusted EPS
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to increase adjusted EPS to a range of $8.36 to $8.51 for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The adjusted EPS target for 2026 is $8.36 to $8.51. However, diluted EPS was $1.56 in 2026-Q1, down from $1.72 in 2025-Q1, indicating a declining trend and limited progress towards the EPS target.
0%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted Diluted EPS $8.36 - $8.51 is forecasted for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted Diluted EPS $8.36 - $8.51”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Reported diluted EPS is forecast to be in a range of $7.87 to $8.02.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PM Philip Morris International | +5.0 | full | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document and contained in Exhibit 101) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC. By: /s/ DARLENE QUASHIE HENRY Name: Darlene Quashie Henry Title: Vice President, Associate General Counsel & Corporate Secretary…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45 - 2026-04-299d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 29, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. (“PMI”) issued $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.125% Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.875% Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to an Indenture dated as of April 25, 2008, by and between PMI and HSBC Bank USA, National Association, as trustee. In connection with the issuance of the No…
capital allocationneutralscore 42 - 2026-02-063mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as well as the accompanying glossary of key terms, definitions, explanatory notes, select financial information and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures. The earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporate…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-12-114mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 11, 2025, Philip Morris International Inc. (“PMI”) entered into a credit agreement, effective as of January 29, 2026 (the “Credit Agreement”), relating to a senior unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Facility”) with the lenders named therein, Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch, as facility agent, and Citibank, N.A., as swingline agent. The Facility provides for borrowings up to an aggregate principal amount of US$2.0 billion (or the eq…
capital allocationneutralscore 2 - 2025-12-114mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
capital allocationnegativescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.