D-Wave Quantum, Inc. (QBTS)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.58-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QBTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QBTS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-25
CFO — John Markovich: The CFO is retiring with a named internal successor (SVP of Finance) taking over as acting CFO, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: New partnerships could help D-Wave grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifA new partnership with a big tech company or research group is announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This milestone is important for D-Wave's gate-model plans. It may help them compete.
Supportive ifThey will announce the 17-physical-qubit system's successful launch by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the deployment of the 17-physical-qubit system past the end of 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes, it shows the company is recovering. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year over year, surpassing $3.1 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is still falling compared to last year. It is below $3.1 million.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact D-Wave's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$416 on $10,000 · ±4.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $985 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,101 loss on $10,000 · 71.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive growth and validate D-Wave's technology in the market. This is crucial for expanding their customer base.
Supportive ifThere is news of more partnerships with big companies, like the deal with Nasdaq Verafin.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Getting this funding is key for speeding up R&D and supporting growth.
Supportive ifManagement announces success in the funding deal with the U.S. government.
Worry ifNegotiations fail or are delayed. This could hurt R&D plans.
Why it matters: The result of this issue could affect how the market sees D-Wave and investor trust.
Worry ifThey successfully transfer their listing to Nasdaq without more problems.
Less concerning ifMore issues come up with the delisting or problems in the transfer.
Why it matters: This sale is a big contract. It could help future revenue growth.
Supportive ifRevenue from the FAU sale will help Q2 or Q3 earnings.
Worry ifRevenue from the FAU sale is less than expected. This shows problems with sales.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue means trouble in turning bookings into sales.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $3.1 million. This shows problems in sales.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $3.1 million. This shows good conversion of bookings to sales.
Why it matters: Getting this funding will help R&D. It will speed up product development.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of award documents for the $100 million funding.
Worry ifFunding talks are paused or ended. This shows problems in getting support.
Why it matters: A drop in bookings would signal weakening demand and challenge growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 bookings are under $2.1 million. This shows a drop in customer demand.
Less concerning ifQ3 bookings exceed $2.1 million, showing continued strong demand.
Why it matters: This funding is key. It will help D-Wave grow faster and improve research.
Watch forThey will officially announce the funding deal and that funds are being allocated.
Also watch forThey announce delays or problems in getting the $100 million funding.
Why it matters: If D-Wave integrates well, it could boost its gate-model quantum computing. This will impact competition.
Supportive ifThe team has finished integration steps on time in the Quantum Circuits plan.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the integration process. This slows down product development.
Why it matters: New partnerships can boost revenue and market presence. This is vital for growth.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new partnership that is worth more than $10 million.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or agreements are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This event marks D-Wave's listing debut on Nasdaq. It highlights the company's growth and market position.
Supportive ifThe Nasdaq Opening Bell rang successfully. There was good media coverage and investor interest.
Worry ifMedia coverage was negative. Investor turnout at the Nasdaq event was low.
Why it matters: Getting government money helps D-Wave speed up its quantum computing research.
Supportive ifD-Wave announced agreements for $100 million funding under the CHIPS Act.
Worry ifNo updates on funding progress or delays in securing the grant.
Why it matters: Strong bookings show more people want D-Wave's quantum computing services and products.
Supportive ifQ3 bookings exceed $35 million, continuing the trend of strong growth.
Worry ifQ3 bookings fall below $25 million, indicating a slowdown in demand.
Why it matters: The event will share details about D-Wave's technology plans and growth.
Watch forInvestors and analysts gave good feedback on the technology plans shown.
Also watch forNegative reactions or lack of clarity on the growth strategy during the event.