Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
D-Wave Quantum, Inc. (QBTS)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.38+0.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QBTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Utilize $100M CHIPS Act funding to accelerate quantum system development | D-Wave has secured $100M in CHIPS Act funding to speed development. | Improving | Funding utilization stalls or is materially delayed in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not a proven earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is high. The multi-year view is in a watch state, with improving momentum signals but limited reported evidence that commercial efforts are lifting revenue.
QBTS trades at a substantial premium to peers, with the valuation model pointing to optionality, or value placed on possible future growth, as the main reason. Model confidence is low, and the evidence does not specify exactly what operating growth the market assumes; the premium therefore depends on expectations for future commercial progress.
Near term, results may remain weak: revenue was $2.9 million in 2026-Q1 and $3.1 million in Q2, while operating losses remained above $53 million in both quarters. Management continues to emphasize customer adoption, product development, and go-to-market investment, but reported revenue offers limited proof of delivery so far, and recent earnings misses add execution risk.
Over the next several quarters, the central test is whether commercial adoption produces stronger revenue while investment supports the dual-platform roadmap. Another guidance cut would add a meaningful negative signal; easier rates or steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but would not establish QBTS's own execution.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis remains speculative and execution-dependent, with a high valuation premium set against losses and limited commercial proof. Recent momentum has improved, but the evidence still supports a cautious watch of adoption, guidance, and spending. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Strategic partnerships are expanding, supporting future growth. |
| Improving |
| No new partnerships formed or announced in FY26 |
1 new partnership (LG CNS) vs target of increased count D-Wave signed an MOU with LG CNS on Oct 28, 2026, to advance quantum adoption in Asia. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net losses and improve EPS trajectory | A primary condition in D-Wave Quantum, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.31 in FY26 toward break-even by FY27. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.31 in FY26 or FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.31 in FY26 toward break-even by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.13 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue above $30M in FY26 | A primary condition in D-Wave Quantum, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $30M revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $30M in FY26 | Revenue: $3.076M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20263,076,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.40 → $-0.38 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.40 | $85,776,170 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.40 | $85,776,170 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.40 | $85,776,170 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.37 | $85,751,700 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.39 | $85,796,530 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.39 | $85,796,530 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.39 | $85,796,530 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.39 | $85,828,690 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.37 | $85,775,033 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.39 | $84,889,310 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.39 | $84,889,310 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.39 | $84,889,310 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.39 | $85,809,600 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.38 | $80,971,000 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.38 | $80,971,000 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.38 | $80,384,471 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.38 | $80,368,447 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.38 | $80,833,153 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.38 | $81,009,035 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.38 | $81,009,035 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.38 | $80,835,271 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.38 | $80,832,565 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.38 | $80,829,871 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.38 | $80,829,871 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.38 | $80,829,859 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.38 | $80,829,859 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.38 | $80,829,859 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.38 | $80,829,859 | 11 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.