Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-05
$38.15-2.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.51 → 1.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for REXR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Core FFO per diluted share reaches $2.35 to $2.40 in 2026 | It aims for Core FFO per share near $2.4 in 2026. | Intact | Core FFO per share falls below $2.35 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
REXR is a real estate growth story with a durable premium to peers, rather than a value case, and the evidence does not establish a clear long-term thesis state. Management is stable, but confidence has moved from high to medium.
Valuation is stretched, with a durable premium to peers and a positive expectations gap, so the market appears to assume continued strength. Fragility signals are low, but that does not remove the risk that expectations are hard to meet.
Near term, Q3 Core FFO per diluted share was flat year over year, while full-year guidance increased to $2.41-$2.44. Repurchases and debt repayment show substantive capital allocation, but planned dispositions remain under watch, and the company has a recent history of a deep miss and a miss in its latest quarter.
Over the next year, execution on planned dispositions and growth in Core FFO per share will matter. Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while a guidance cut or weaker results from sector bellwethers could remove that support.
Over a 1-3 year view, REXR combines a stated focus on per-share growth with tangible capital actions, but flat quarterly per-share results and stretched valuation leave the thesis dependent on sustained execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Rexford Industrial Realty's published investment case. The stated target is >=130 million USD. |
| Intact |
| Development spending falls below $130M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain dividend growth with quarterly dividend at least $0.435 | A supporting condition in Rexford Industrial Realty's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.435 USD per share quarterly. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.43 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.435 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 20260.435 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.95 → $1.39 · observed estimates
$0.98B → $0.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.95 | $975,994,040 | 1 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.95 | $963,414,360 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.95 | $963,414,360 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.95 | $951,192,140 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.95 | $951,192,140 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.95 | $945,105,590 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.21 | $941,234,989 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.21 | $941,234,989 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.21 | $941,234,989 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.95 | $934,696,230 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.95 | $934,715,230 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.99 | $925,753,710 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.99 | $925,753,710 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.21 | $940,578,245 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.41 | $909,204,000 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.41 | $910,658,545 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.53 | $904,505,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.53 | $904,505,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.53 | $904,505,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.53 | $904,705,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.53 | $904,705,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.53 | $904,666,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.53 | $903,366,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.53 | $903,366,750 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.53 | $902,905,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.53 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.51 | $900,747,100 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.53 | $900,179,818 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.45 | $898,596,922 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.45 | $898,596,922 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.45 | $898,655,463 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.45 | $896,692,213 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.45 | $896,692,213 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.45 | $896,692,213 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.45 | $896,692,213 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.36 | $891,734,630 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.36 | $891,734,630 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.36 | $889,730,088 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.36 | $889,730,088 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.36 | $888,855,088 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.36 | $888,855,088 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.36 | $888,855,088 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.39 | $889,438,422 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.39 | $889,438,422 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.