Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.79-0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REXR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
REXR — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-26
Chief Operating Officer — John Nahas: John Nahas was promoted to Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: Rental rates affect revenue growth. A decline could hurt future earnings potential.
Worry ifNew lease rental rates decrease by more than 10% on a cash basis in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNew lease rental rates stabilize or increase on a cash basis in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this sale would confirm Rexford's commitment to its $2 billion disposition plan. It would enhance cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet.
Supportive ifThe transaction closes by the end of Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The company plans to initiate $130M - $140M in repositioning and development projects. Success here is key for growth.
Supportive ifAt least $130 million in new projects will be announced by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new projects will be announced by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show Rexford's commitment to its strategic realignment. It can enhance cash flow and financial flexibility.
Supportive ifTotal sales reported at or above $1.5 billion by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal sales will be below $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,578 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Rental rate trends will show demand strength and pricing power in Rexford's portfolio.
Worry ifNew lease rental rates stabilize or increase after a decline of 2.8%.
Less concerning ifNew lease rental rates continue to decline beyond 2.8%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector. This would benefit Rexford's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rebounds to above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: More asset sales would show management's plan to change the portfolio. This could help finances.
Supportive ifRexford announces more asset sales worth over $500 million.
Worry ifNo new dispositions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Successfully selling non-core assets will strengthen the balance sheet and improve cash flow. This is crucial for future growth.
Supportive ifCompany sells assets worth at least $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDispositions total less than $1.5 billion by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: New developments show the company's growth strategy. It is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new development projects starting in 2026.
Worry ifNo new projects announced and delays in current projects.
Why it matters: The company has increased its dividend to $0.435 per share. Ongoing growth signals financial health and shareholder value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks reported above $300 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks reported below $300 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Selling assets will help with capital use. It will also make the balance sheet stronger.
Supportive ifThe company sells properties worth at least $400 million by Q3 2026.
Worry ifDispositions fall short of $400 million by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New leadership can change how the company performs. Investors will look for better operations.
Watch forOperational metrics improve a lot with new CEO Laura Clark.
Also watch forOperational metrics go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: Updates to Core FFO guidance will show management's confidence in earnings growth. This is key for investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises Core FFO per diluted share guidance above $2.43 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers Core FFO per diluted share guidance below $2.38 for 2026.
Why it matters: Negative growth in Same Property NOI can mean worse property performance and less tenant demand.
Worry ifSame Property Portfolio NOI growth is reported below -2.0% for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifSame Property Portfolio NOI growth exceeds -1.0% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can show management's confidence in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifThe company buys back at least $200 million in shares under the new program next quarter.
Worry ifNo major share repurchases happen under the new program next quarter.
Why it matters: Successful projects can drive revenue growth and improve property value. Investors need to see execution on these plans.
Supportive ifThe company begins new projects costing between $130M and $140M.
Worry ifNo new projects announced or costs exceed $140M.