Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.20+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Rigetti is advancing quantum computing R&D with $100 million government funding. Revenue from Novera system sales grew from $1.47M to $4.4M in one year. Strategic partnerships support growth in a fast-evolving market. These factors could drive future revenue growth and technology leadership.
The company remains loss-making with operating income at -$25.95M in 2026-Q1. Revenue growth is small at $1.9M guided for 2026-Q1. Recent sharp stock selloff and warnings about revenue growth hurt confidence. Execution risks and high losses may continue.
The price is about 34% below our fair value near $27, reflecting justified caution. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth, but losses and execution risks are priced in. Our view aligns with the Street on valuation but sees high risk in execution.
Breaks if: R&D progress stalls or government funding is withdrawn
Breaks if: Novera revenue growth falls below $1.5M annually
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$30M in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity in the tech sector, particularly in quantum computing. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent earnings misses and overall weak financial performance.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a significant premium compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap indicating that the market may be anticipating weaker performance than previously expected.
Fundamentals are likely to remain fragile in the near term, especially with a 43% probability of missing earnings again. Recent results show a trend of consecutive earnings misses, which raises concerns about management's ability to execute effectively.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to advance its quantum computing initiatives and the impact of broader market conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed. Additionally, performance from sector leaders could influence RGTI's trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RGTI's performance will depend heavily on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The CEO announced a $100 million funding agreement. This funding supports investment in quantum computing. It increases expectations for financial support and validation. However, there was a major leadership shake-up. This change may disrupt RGTI's research and strategic goals.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.