Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.85-12.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RGTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance superconducting quantum computing R&D with government support | Rigetti is advancing quantum computing R&D with $100 million government funding. | Improving | R&D progress stalls or government funding is withdrawn | Qualitative: $100M CHIPS award secured vs active R&D target Rigetti signed $100M CHIPS Act agreement with US Dept of Commerce to boost quantum R&D. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth: the business is investing in superconducting quantum computing while recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is fragile. The thesis is in a watch state, with mixed management execution overall but progress on system availability, revenue growth, and government funding.
The valuation model shows a 72.49% premium versus peers, with low confidence and an expectations gap of -0.62. Optionality, meaning value investors assign to possible future business opportunities, is the main valuation driver; the evidence labels the current pricing as justified and does not flag concentrated fragility.
Near term, revenue rose from $4.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $5.1 million in 2026-Q2 as system deployments and Novera orders progressed, and the 108-qubit system became generally available. However, recent results have been weak relative to the industry cohort, with consecutive earnings misses and a 51% estimated miss probability for the next print; guidance cuts remain a stated risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on turning system availability, fidelity improvements, and $100 million in U.S. Department of Commerce funding into sustained commercial progress. Near-term results also depend on whether management avoids a guidance cut; broader support could come from Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies.
RGTI has visible research funding and early deployment progress, but its multi-year view remains uncertain because execution, earnings quality, and near-term results are fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Revenue from Novera system sales grew from $1.47M to $4.4M in one year. |
| Intact |
| Novera revenue growth falls below $1.5M annually |
Revenue: $5.138M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue from Novera systems >= $4.4M in 2026-Q1 and growing thereafter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20265,138,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses to improve financial stability | A supporting condition in Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss improves or stays above -$25.95M next 4 quarters. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$30M in any quarter | Operating income: $-28.062M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves or stays above -$25.95M next 4 quarters. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-28,062,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.20 → $-0.19 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.20 | $52,493,136 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.20 | $52,493,136 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.20 | $52,493,136 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.20 | $52,493,136 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $44,503,450 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $45,178,170 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.19 | $52,502,042 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $52,503,350 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.19 | $52,503,350 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $45,178,170 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.20 | $45,178,170 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $52,503,350 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $52,503,350 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $52,503,350 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $43,885,270 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.19 | $52,504,483 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.20 | $52,155,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.20 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.19 | $52,580,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.19 | $52,580,000 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.19 | $51,244,250 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.19 | $51,246,658 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.19 | $51,246,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.19 | $51,242,833 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.19 | $51,242,833 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.19 | $51,242,833 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.