Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.20+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 50.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: This funding could speed up Rigetti's work in superconducting quantum computing. It is key for growing technology.
Supportive ifA definitive agreement is signed with the U.S. Department of Commerce for the funding.
Worry ifNo agreement is reached or funding is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Investments in the UK show a commitment to global growth in quantum computing.
Supportive ifNews about specific projects or funding tied to the $100 million investment in the UK.
Worry ifNo new announcements or delays in planned investments in the UK.
Why it matters: Progress on the $100 million UK investment could boost Rigetti's global presence and growth.
Supportive ifThe UK-based quantum computing system has key steps to complete for deployment.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the investment plan show risks in execution.
Why it matters: Better use and performance can help Rigetti's market position. This can lead to more money.
Supportive ifThe 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system hits the target of 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity.
Worry ifThe system fails to meet the fidelity target. It also misses the deployment schedule.
Why it matters: High operating losses may show ongoing problems with managing costs.
Worry ifOperating losses decrease to less than -$20 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating losses increase beyond -$30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Funding from the U.S. government could speed up Rigetti's quantum computing projects. This support is crucial for scaling their technology.
Supportive ifRigetti receives the first tranche of the $100 million funding as outlined in the letter of intent.
Worry ifFunding is delayed or canceled. This affects R&D timelines.
Why it matters: If Rigetti deploys the Cepheus-1-108Q system, it shows they can grow and improve.
Supportive ifRigetti installs the 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system at a major customer site.
Worry ifDeployment is delayed or fails to meet performance targets.
Why it matters: Ongoing revenue growth shows strong demand for Rigetti's quantum systems. This is key for finances.
Supportive ifNovera systems made over $6 million in revenue last quarter.
Worry ifNovera systems made less than $5 million in revenue last quarter.
Why it matters: Investment in the UK could enhance Rigetti's global presence and access to new markets.
Supportive ifRigetti announces a partnership or project in the UK worth over $20 million.
Worry ifPlans for UK investment are scaled back or delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$476 on $10,000 · ±4.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $945 loss on $10,000 · 9.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,710 loss on $10,000 · 77.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.