Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.85-12.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 50.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
RGTI — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-08
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Investment in the UK can boost Rigetti's global presence and market chances. Progress can show growth.
Supportive ifThey announced successful use of quantum systems in the UK or partnerships with UK groups.
Worry ifNo big updates or delays in the planned $100 million investment in the UK.
Why it matters: Updates on the R&D projects will show if Rigetti can solve key challenges in quantum computing.
Supportive ifA press release shows milestones reached under the $100 million funding deal.
Worry ifNo updates or delays reported on the R&D projects funded by the agreement.
Why it matters: This funding could speed up Rigetti's work in superconducting quantum computing. It is key for growing technology.
Supportive ifA definitive agreement is signed with the U.S. Department of Commerce for the funding.
Worry ifNo agreement is reached or funding is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: More sales would support the case that on-premises demand is turning into revenue. Q2 revenue was $5.1 million.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 9, 2026 results report revenue above $5.1 million and note progress on Novera or other system deliveries.
Worry ifThe Nov. 9 results report revenue at or below $5.1 million, or say that system deliveries slipped.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$313 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $914 loss on $10,000 · 9.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,359 loss on $10,000 · 73.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A successful launch can improve Rigetti's market position and revenue. It shows they can scale quantum systems.
Supportive ifRigetti has successfully deployed the 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to a big client.
Worry ifRigetti delays the launch or reports problems with the 108-qubit system's performance.
Why it matters: Investing in the UK can help Rigetti grow internationally. It shows they want global market chances.
Supportive ifRigetti shares news of a big milestone or partnership for the UK investment plan.
Worry ifRigetti delays or cancels parts of the UK investment plan.
Why it matters: Investments in the UK show a commitment to global growth in quantum computing.
Supportive ifNews about specific projects or funding tied to the $100 million investment in the UK.
Worry ifNo new announcements or delays in planned investments in the UK.
Why it matters: News about the UK investment shows Rigetti wants to grow around the world.
Supportive ifThere will be news about big steps in the UK investment plan.
Worry ifNo updates or delays reported for the UK investment plan.
Why it matters: Progress on the $100 million UK investment could boost Rigetti's global presence and growth.
Supportive ifThe UK-based quantum computing system has key steps to complete for deployment.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the investment plan show risks in execution.
Why it matters: Performance updates will show if Rigetti is on track to meet its technology roadmap goals.
Supportive ifReports show that the median two-qubit gate fidelity is now 99.5% or higher.
Worry ifReports show median two-qubit gate fidelity falls below 99.1% or stays the same.
Why it matters: High operating losses may show ongoing problems with managing costs.
Worry ifOperating losses decrease to less than -$20 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating losses increase beyond -$30 million in Q2.