Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.37-3.78%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RKLB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 64.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 111.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
RKLB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-15
Other Events. As previously disclosed in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 29, 2026, Rocket Lab entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), dated as of June 28, 2026, with Iridium, Ion Merger Sub I, Inc., a Delaware corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Rocket Lab (“Merger Sub I”), and Ion Merger Sub II, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Rocket…
Why it matters: Neutron's first launch is now set for 2027. A further delay would push back a key new rocket program.
Worry ifRocket Lab moves Neutron's first launch beyond 2027, or reports that it will miss a stated 2027 launch window.
Less concerning ifRocket Lab keeps the first launch in 2027 and reports progress toward pad delivery.
Why it matters: Rocket Lab guided to $250 million to $265 million in Q3 revenue. Results above that range would extend its record growth.
Supportive ifOn November 9, Q3 revenue is above $265 million, or backlog rises from $2.36 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $250 million, or reported backlog falls from $2.36 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$266 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $984 loss on $10,000 · 9.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,616 loss on $10,000 · 66.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.