Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.99-12.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RKLB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CEO maintains leadership commitment and supports growth | A supporting condition in Rocket Lab Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant CEO stake sales or leadership concerns. | Improving | CEO sells large stake or leadership doubts rise | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue and backlog have grown, while recent performance is weak and company momentum has dropped sharply.
The valuation model shows a premium versus peers, with some support from the potential value of future opportunities, or optionality. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations may be ahead of what current fundamentals support; confidence in that estimate is low, and the evidence does not give a firm valuation conclusion.
Near term, the company has reported higher revenue and a larger backlog, while continuing work on Neutron; its first launch timing has shifted to 2027. Momentum has weakened, earnings surprises have been trending down, and management execution is described as volatile, though the stated risk of a near-term miss is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on avoiding a guidance cut and sustaining revenue and backlog growth. Over the multi-year view, key swing factors are closing the Iridium acquisition as expected, managing its funding, and delivering Neutron after the schedule adjustment. Industrial-sector results could also strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
The 1-3 year view combines evidence of growth with substantial execution and sector risks, and the current thesis remains on watch. The key test is whether growth and major projects progress without further weakening in guidance or operating momentum. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Losses should shrink toward a $20M-$26M adjusted EBITDA loss in Q2. |
| Improving |
| Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $26 million in Q2 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin between 33% and 35% in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Rocket Lab Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 33% to 35%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 33% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin: 36.13% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 33% to 35%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 202636.133398 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Record quarterly revenue of $200.3M, a 63.5% increase YoY • Record GAAP gross margin of 38.2% • Record backlog of $2.2B, up 20.2% QoQ • Record liquidity following completion of at-the-market offering, with access to more than $2 billion in total liquidity strongly positioning the Company for further organic growth and M&A execution • Record new launch contracts, with 31 new Electron and HASTE contracts signed in Q1, plus five new dedicated Neutron launches signed.” “• GAAP Gross Margins between 33% and 35%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue between $225M and $240M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Rocket Lab Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $225 million and <= $240 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $225 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $234.066M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $225 million and <= $240 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 2026234,066,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.03 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$1.28B → $1.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.03 | $1,281,164,390 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.00 | $1,278,909,916 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.00 | $1,278,909,916 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.03 | $1,281,164,390 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.00 | $1,278,909,916 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.03 | $1,270,674,670 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.03 | $1,270,674,670 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.03 | $1,270,674,670 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $1,286,382,040 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $1,286,382,040 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $1,342,130,790 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $1,342,130,790 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.00 | $1,314,692,699 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,534 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $1,394,280,569 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $1,400,533,075 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $1,400,533,075 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $1,400,533,075 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.04 | $1,396,614,570 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.04 | $1,395,975,640 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.02 | $1,394,534,831 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.02 | $1,394,736,881 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.02 | $1,394,736,881 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.02 | $1,394,736,881 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.02 | $1,394,736,881 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.03 | $1,382,492,267 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.03 | $1,382,492,267 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $1,364,282,656 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $1,364,276,466 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $1,364,276,466 | 10 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.