Roivant Sciences (ROIV)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.62-4.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROIV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
ROIV — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, other than to the extent that such filing incorporates by reference any or all of such information by express reference thereto.
Why it matters: Sales will show whether the new dermatomyositis drug is gaining early use. The supplied results do not yet show product sales.
Watch forIn its November 9 earnings report, Roivant gives LISRAYA sales figures. It reports growth in new prescriptions or patient starts.
Also watch forIn its November 9 earnings report, Roivant reports flat or falling sales. Or it gives no sales details after launch.
Why it matters: A favorable ruling could lead to another payment to Genevant and Arbutus. The payment is not certain while the appeal is open.
Watch forA court rules in Genevant and Arbutus's favor on Moderna's Section 1498 appeal. This makes the $1.3 billion payment due.
Also watch forA court rules against Genevant and Arbutus. Or the appeal ends without the $1.3 billion payment becoming due.
Why it matters: The results will test this drug in cutaneous lupus. They may also shape the plan for its other immune disease trials.
Watch forRoivant reports CLE trial results by December 31, 2026, and says the trial met its stated proof-of-concept goals.
Also watch forRoivant reports that the CLE trial missed its main goal, or delays results past December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: The filing is the next key step after two positive Phase 3 trials. A delay or new safety issue could weaken this progress.
Supportive ifPriovant files the brepocitinib NIU sNDA by June 30, 2027. No new safety signal is reported.
Worry ifPriovant does not file by June 30, 2027, or reports a new safety issue that delays the filing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,023 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.